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majority (75%) of the global vanadium supply, conversations with industry experts revealed that this stream is concentrated around ~10 steel mills, primarily in China and Russia. Such severe concentration reflects extreme precarity in the supply chain and can intensify volatility in supply and price. For example, the price spike that began in 2016 (Figure IV-1) was partially a result of the bankruptcy-induced closure of Highveld Steel & Vanadium in South Africa in 2015 [65], previously the worldโs largest producer of vanadium slag from steel production [66], which caused an ~11% decrease in global vanadium production [67]. This decrease in supply was compounded by other mine closures in China due to increased enforcement of environmental regulations [67,68]. Supply has remained depressed for years [67] and has only begun to rebound as of 2019 [49], likely due to increasing primary production in Brazil led by Largo Incorporated. Simultaneous to these supply constrictions were increases to demand in late 2018 due to revised Chinese โrebarโ standards (regarding steel strength) that promote greater use of vanadium in high- strength steel alloys [67,69]. The combination of circumstances ultimately led to the price spike in the final months of 2018, which peaked at 10ร the price relative to early 2016 [34] (Figure IV-1). 3. Quantitative analysis of vanadium supply chain scale-up needed for VRFB deployment targets The expansion of VRFB production and deployment depends on the ability to increase the production scale of vanadium. To illustrate the required expansion of vanadium production required by a targeted level of deployment we assume, following Kavlak et al. [70], that the production of vanadium increases at a uniform compound annual growth rate (CAGR) year over year. In terms of the CAGR, the production in year n, pn, is related to the present-day global production, p0 by, ๐: = ๐V (1 + ๐ถ๐ด๐บ๐ ): (IV-3) where p0 = 8.6 ร 107 kg(V) per annum (in 2020 [49]). Assuming only new vanadium supply is available for VRFBs, one must specify the fraction of new vanadium production going towards 71PDF Image | Bringing Redox Flow Batteries to the Grid
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