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has demonstrated much more modest growth in the last 30 years (< 4%). As existing vanadium demand is accounted for (primarily by markets for high-strength steel), relatively rapid growth in supply is needed to achieve sizable future VRFB deployment. In the near-term (i.e., 2030), we find vanadium production scale-up is likely feasible to meet expected demand (up to 100 GWh). Deployment to this extent would certainly represent significant growth to the RFB market broadly and would have a notable effect in reducing both the cost of chemistry-unspecific RFB components as well as the perceived risk around RFB deployment, thus accelerating further RFB commercialization efforts. However, the long-term prospects are more restrictive: the relatively modest magnitudes of both existing vanadium production and historic rates of supply chain growth for metals limit feasible future VRFB deployment to only ~2 TWh by 2050. This diagnosis itself, as well as hopes of 10’s-TWh or greater deployment scales, depend on growing the vanadium production scale more rapidly than it has historically (i.e., at a CAGR of ~10%), which largely relies on improving our vanadium recovery capabilities to utilize lower-grade sources of vanadium, making such efforts worthwhile recipients of more devoted research and development resources. Due to the low grades of vanadium found in natural precursors, economic vanadium production may always be dependent on co-/by-product recovery. While duplex steel co-/by- product production demonstrates poor steel-making economics that may make this supply precarious and less likely to expand, new avenues for co-/by-product production from alternate steel-making methods or with other metals can grow and diversify the vanadium supply chain. However, economical primary vanadium production is potentially within reach, with projects being announced across the world that would expand production capacity significantly. Further, production from secondary sources can help bridge supply, as development of these sources does not require major technological advancements. These primary and secondary vanadium sources have the potential to bolster US production capacities in particular; indeed, one US VRFB manufacturer has announced plans to domestically source all of their vanadium, implying the US vanadium supply chain is already growing [94]. Other economic strategies can help reduce price volatility and upfront costs of vanadium in the near-term, including vertical integration of VRFB companies, hedging supply/demand risk via futures markets for vanadium, and electrolyte leasing. Ultimately, near-term decarbonization goals necessitate deployment of energy storage as soon as possible. The VRFB has the highest technology-readiness level of all RFB chemistries and its rapid deployment at reasonable and, per this study, feasible scales (i.e., up to 100 GWh by 2030) can 84PDF Image | Bringing Redox Flow Batteries to the Grid
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