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Bitcoin, Blockchain, and the Energy Sector Global power requirement estimates for Bitcoin have increased within the last five years. For comparison, the largest estimate of 7,670 MW in Table 1 is nearly 1% of U.S. electricity generating capacity (or approximately 0.1% of global electricity generating capacity).21 Opinions differ on whether future growth in Bitcoin will significantly impact energy consumption and subsequent carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Some argue that sustainability concerns due to energy consumption are misplaced, and that the competitiveness of Bitcoin mining means that only miners with the most competitive mining hardware and the lowest electricity costs will persist over time.22 Further, this could lead to fewer miners using energy inefficient hardware, as they may no longer be able to compete effectively. Some anticipate that energy demands will diminish as the reward incentive shifts from discovering new Bitcoin to earning revenue through transaction fees. As a result, some would argue that the energy consumption from mining Bitcoin is a temporary issue.23 Others recognize the volatility of cryptocurrency markets but observe that network hashrates of several cryptocurrencies have trended upward suggesting that energy consumption (and subsequent CO2 emissions) will increase. However, these estimates do not include energy required for cooling systems and other operations and maintenance activities associated with cryptocurrency mining.24 One study on projections of Bitcoin growth considered the potential effects on global CO2 emissions should Bitcoin eventually replace other cashless transactions.25 The study found that the associated energy consumption of Bitcoin usage could potentially produce enough CO2 emissions to lead to a 2oC increase in global mean average within 30 years.26 These projections assume that the global portfolio of fuel types (and subsequent CO2 emissions) used to generate electricity remains fixed according to portfolio profiles from 2014 and does not consider that, in many cases, Bitcoin is often mined in areas with plentiful and affordable renewable energy.27 Further, the projections do not consider any potential effects of a collapse of Bitcoin prices on hashrates or energy consumption, and whether the capital invested in Bitcoin mining could be used for other cryptocurrencies or for other purposes.28 Projections of continued growth in energy 21 According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2016 the total U.S. electric power sector capacity was approximately 1,042 GW; see A9 Table 9. Electricity Generating Capacity in EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2018, February 6, 2018, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/. The total installed global electricity generating capacity is estimated to be 7,365 GW; see Central Intelligence Agency, “Country Comparison: Electricity—Installed Generating Capacity,” The World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/ 2236rank.html. 22 Harold Vranken, “Sustainability of Bitcoin and Blockchains,” Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, vol. 28 (2017), p. 8. 23 According to Christian Catalini, current energy trends of Bitcoin are not permanent, and “once we’re at scale and so few bitcoins are being mined that it is essentially irrelevant for the system, the revenue for the miners will have to come from transaction fees. So in equilibrium, the energy and security provided by the network from this wasteful computation will have to be equivalent to the transaction fee.” See Chris Mooney and Steven Mufson, “Why the Bitcoin Craze Is Using Up So Much Energy,” The Washington Post, December 19, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/12/19/why-the-bitcoin-craze-is-using-up-so- much-energy. 24 Max J. Krause and Thabet Tolaymat, “Quantification of Energy and Carbon Costs for Mining Cryptocurrencies,” Nature Sustainability, vol. 1 (November 2018), p. 712. 25 Camilo Mora, Randi L. Rollins, and Katie Taladay, et al., “Bitcoin Emissions Alone Could Push Global Warming Above 2oC,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8 (November 2018), pp. 931-933. 26 Ibid. 27 George Kamiya, “Commentary: Bitcoin Energy Use-Mined the Gap,” International Energy Agency, July 5, 2019. 28 Max J. Krause and Thabet Tolaymat, “Quantification of Energy and Carbon Costs for Mining Cryptocurrencies,” Nature Sustainability, vol. 1 (November 2018), p. 712. Congressional Research Service 6PDF Image | Bitcoin, Blockchain, and the Energy Sector 2019
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