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RENEWABLE ENERGY IS NOW THE CHEAPEST ENERGY The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for solar and wind has fallen 90% and 71%,1 respectively, over the last decade. The unsubsidized costs of solar and wind energy are now 3-4 cents / kWh and 2-5 cents / kWh, respectively. Certain individual projects have had even lower costs. For context, the average LCOE for fossil fuels such as coal or natural gas is ~5-7 cents / kWh. This means that solar and wind are already at a lower price point than coal and natural gas. Solar and wind energy also just reached cost parity2 with both geothermal and hydroelectric, which at around 3-5 cents / kWh are inexpensive, but geographically limited. There will always be inexpensive individual sites for different power sources like hydro or geothermal, but on the whole, solar and wind are now the lowest cost and most scalable. What’s more, we believe they will only continue to get more affordable over time. We believe this is especially true for solar, a semiconductor technology, which has consistently declined in price by 20-40%3 per doubling of cumulative capacity deployed. In essence, the sun shines during the day, but not at night. Wind is more unpredictable, but tends to blow more heavily at night. Energy supply, therefore, is either abundant or non- existent. Demand, however, peaks around the late afternoon or early evening when people arrive home and turn on appliances, at which time neither solar nor wind are abundantly available. The end result is significantly more power than society typically needs for a few hours per day and not nearly enough when demand spikes. This same challenge also plays out seasonally as the sun shines more during the summer and the wind blows more during the winter. These deficiencies are further exacerbated by grid congestion,5 which is similar to highway traffic and frequently occurs because solar and wind projects are often built in rural areas with lots of sunlight and wind but little nearby load (i.e. end power users) and transmission capacity. Because of these challenges, there are >200 GW6 of delayed solar and wind capacity currently in just three U.S. grid interconnection queues. These are solar and wind projects which have developers and financing readily available, but which grids physically cannot accommodate. Increased transmission capacity and energy storage will be critical to solving these problems, especially as Lithium Ion batteries continue to fall down their cost curve. For the moment, though, utility-scale batteries are still too expensive to deploy universally. After they’ve fallen another 80% in cost, they will still face physical limitations around their useful lifespan and for how long they can store energy without dissipation. They will, however, be the most critical technology in storing inexpensive mid-day solar power for evening peak demand. Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is the total lifetime cost of building and operating a power plant divided by the total amount of energy it produces (measured in cents / kWh). Semiconductor technology the basis of modern electronics and computing which has historically fallen in cost as its production capacity increases (e.g. see Moore’s Law). Intermittency is when an energy source is not constant. For example, in the case of a solar farm, it only produces when the sun shines. Grid congestion is when a grid’s transmission lines have reached the maximum capacity for how much electricity can flow through them at any given moment. Transmission capacity the rate at which electricity can be moved from a power plant (e.g. a solar farm) to a load center (e.g. a city). LCOE by Energy Source In Price per kWh Hydro Wind Solar ~.01 – .04 ~.02 – .05 ~.03 – .04 Nat. Gas Geothermal Coal ~.04 – .07 ~.05 – .10 ~.06 – .07 All but Hydro, Lazard. Hydropower, IRENA – International Renewable Energy Agency. TEMPORAL SUPPLY & DEMAND MISMATCH AND GRID CONGESTION Solar and wind energy, however, both suffer from one major deficiency versus more expensive baseload power like natural gas or nuclear: intermittency. In the energy industry, this results in what is known as the“duck curve.”4 1. Levelized Cost of Energy and Levelized Cost of Storage – 2020, Lazard. 2. Levelized Costs of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2021, U.S. Energy Information Administration. 3. Solar's Future is Insanely Cheap (2020), Ramez Naam. 4. Ten Years of Analyzing the Duck Chart, NREL. 5. Transmission congestion & constraints: Market impediment or opportunity? NRG Editorial Voices. 6. New data tool from Berkeley Lab Tracks Proposed Projects in Interconnection Queues, Berkeley Lab. Bitcoin Clean Energy Initiative Memorandum April 2021 02 NREL Duck Curve Net load in Megawatts, January 11 Years 2012-2020 represented 34k 30k 26k 22k 18k 0 12am 3am 6am 9am 12pm 3pm 2020 2012 6pm 9pm Ten Years of Analyzing the Duck Chart, NREL.PDF Image | Bitcoin is Key to an Abundant, Clean Energy Future
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