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THIS SECTION OF THE MEMO WAS WRITTEN BY THE TEAM AT ARK INVEST Bitcoin mining could encourage investment in solar systems, enabling renewables to generate a higher percentage of grid power with no change in the cost of electricity 2,0k 1,5k 1,0k 500 90% 80% 70% 99% of grid demand met 1,2k 1,4k 1,6k Size of bubble is bitcoin mining power 60% 50% 20% 40% 0 10% 200 400 600 800 1,0k Solar installation power (MW) With real-world data, we (ARK Invest) demonstrate that bitcoin mining could encourage investment in solar systems (solar grids + batteries), enabling renewables to generate a higher percentage of grid power with potentially no change in the cost of electricity. Without bitcoin mining, solar - an intermittent energy source - could supply only 40% of grid power before utilities would face the need to fund significant investments with higher electricity prices. With bitcoin mining integrated into a solar system however, energy providers - whether utilities or independent entities - would have the ability to play the arbitrage between electricity prices and bitcoin prices, as well as potentially sell the “surplus”solar and supply almost all grid power demands without lowering profitability. The graph above illustrates the impact that bitcoin mining could have on the adoption of solar systems. Assuming a constant cost of electricity, it traces what percentage of power solar could provide to the grid. The y-axis is the power generated by solar, the x-axis is battery capacity. The size of each circle is proportionate to the size of the bitcoin mining operation. At each point, the solar system provides a different percentage of the grid’s needs. As bitcoin mining scales, the solar system increases in size and provides a higher percentage of the grid’s needs. Increasing bitcoin mining capacity could allow the energy provider to“overbuild” solar without wasting energy. In the bottom left of the chart, in the absence of bitcoin mining, renewables can satisfy only 40% of the grid’s needs. In the top right of the chart, including solar, batteries, and bitcoin mining can satisfy 99% of the grid’s demand. 1. Solar Battery Bitcoin, ARK Invest GitHub. Bitcoin Clean Energy Initiative Memorandum Our model demonstrates that integrated bitcoin mining could transfigure intermittent power resources into baseload-capable generation stations. It suggests that the addition of Bitcoin mining into power developers’ toolboxes should increase the overall addressable market for renewable and intermittent power sources. All else equal, with bitcoin mining, renewable energy could provision a large percentage of any locality’s power economically. As a follow- on effect, cost declines associated with scaling renewables should most likely accelerate, leaving them even more economically competitive at equilibrium. WE PROVIDE AN OPEN-SOURCE VERSION AND MORE DETAILED BREAKDOWN OF THE MODEL AND ITS ASSUMPTIONS HERE1. Baseload-capable generation refers to the ability to meet the minimum level of demand on an electrical grid over a span of time. April 2021 04 Battery system capacity (MWh)PDF Image | Bitcoin is Key to an Abundant, Clean Energy Future
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