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Bitcoin Mining The Evolution of A Multibillion Dollar Industry Yassine Elmandjra, and Derek Hsue, Compared to the few months it took Bitmain to launch a next generation miner a few years ago, present day cycles allow for plenty of time for competitors to get to market. Several original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) have entered the Bitcoin ASIC industry, including Innosilicon, Canaan, and Whatsminer. Canaan, the industry’s second largest manufacturer, recently filed for an IPO.20 Manufacturing and Distribution Key to success in manufacturing mining hardware is optimizing the packaging reliably and efficiently. With proprietary processes in packaging and systems integration, mining chip manufacturers can lower the thermal density of their ASICs, increasing performance and lowering costs.21 ASIC hardware manufacturing involves the following steps. The manufacturers: 1. Receive wafers from the foundry. 2. Test the wafers for fabrication errors with prediction models.22 3. Test and package the wafers within an integrated circuit (IC) design.23 4. Ship the ICs to printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturers for mounting. 5. Integrate the completed boards with other electronic components to create the final product. Mining machine companies believe that their manufacturing processes will differentiate them, delivering competitive advantages. Canaan’s IPO prospectus states, “Through a unique combination of applying silicon in the construction, customized packaging and system integration, the thermal density of our proprietary ASICs can be made lower.”24 These improvements are small, however, suggest that any edge in efficiency and power consumption will be commoditized as competition evolves. Sizing the Miner Hardware Opportunity Based on our research, the mining hardware industry will be valued at a fraction of the ecosystem it is creating. If Bitcoin’s network value were to appreciate roughly 7-fold from $150 billion to $1 trillion during the next 5 years, for example, the mining equipment industry might approach a $20 billion valuation. At today’s bitcoin network value, its fair value probably is less than $5 billion. 20 “Bitmain Competitor Canaan Publicly Files for $400M IPO on Nasdaq.” The Block, www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/44963/bitmain- competitor-canaan-publicly-files-for-ipo-on-nasdaq. 21 New Listing Information - AP & PHIP, www1.hkexnews.hk/app/appindex.html. 22 This process is known as “scan testing” and uses a pre-determined suite of signals that tests each gate on the chip. The tested wafers are sewn into individual dies. 23 This consists of custom packaging for the die. The packaging team must optimize for signal integrity, thermal efficiency, reliability, and cost. This step is highly customizable and a potential point of differentiation across firms. For example, early Bitmain machines were known for their superior thermal design. It is common for firms to outsource certain parts of the packaging and testing process - though they vary in how much they do in-house vs outsourced. For example, Canaan relies on a number of production partners, including ChipPAC, SPIL, and STATS ChipPAC for IC packaging and testing. 24 New Listing Information - AP & PHIP, www1.hkexnews.hk/app/appindex.html. 11PDF Image | Bitcoin Mining
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