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Marc Bevand, a cryptocurrency researcher and entrepreneur, makes a more detailed evaluation of hardware efficiency on his website [4]. This approach took an in-depth look at the evolu- tion of mining hardware efficiency over time, estimating the number of machines added in each hardware generation as a function of the increasing global hash rate. It makes the conser- vative estimate that only the least-efficient hard- ware available in each generation was add- ed, so long as it was profitable to operate at $0.05/kWh. On January 11, 2018, Bevand updated his estimate of the global Bitcoin min- ing network to be 2.1 GW of demand (upper and lower bounds of 1.6 and 3.1 GW) and 18 TWh of annual consumption (bounded by 14 and 27 TWh). The results of this estimate and others suggest that Bitcoin mining worldwide is on the order of 2 to 3 GW. With global installed generating capacity totaling more than 6,200 GW as of 2015 [6], Bitcoin mining represents less than 0.1% of world generating capacity. In 2014, the annual energy consumption of data centers worldwide was estimated to be 194 TWh [7], roughly 10 times the annual consumption of Bitcoin mining estimated by Bevand [4]. There may be valid concerns as to how the energy intensity of cryptocurrencies would scale if they were to handle the number of transactions supported by credit cards each year (roughly two orders of magnitude more). Any reporting that extrapolates current growth rates—when the value of the currency has recently skyrocketed—will likely inflate future predic- tions of energy consumption. It is virtually impossible to make an accurate prediction of growth in mining demand due to the number of unknown variables, including: ◆ Mining difficulty depends on the number of miners connected; ◆ The real-world efficiency of mining hardware is unknown, and reported hardware efficiency has improved at an unprecedented rate; ◆ The revenue paid to miners is highly unpredictable because it is determined by the value of the cryptocurrency, which has been highly volatile. EVOLVING INDUSTRY While it is impossible to predict the rate of future mining growth, there is evidence that this industry may continue to expand in the near future. First, demand for mining equipment has created a scarcity of best-in-class hardware, and prices have risen significantly. In addition, anecdotal reports from mining operations and utilities indicate that it is growing rapidly in certain parts of the United States. Previously, the majority of commercial Bitcoin mining operations have been located in China—specifically, Inner Mongo- lia—due to its cool, dry climate and reportedly low cost of electricity. In January 2018, the Chinese government began to curb mining, in part due to its impact on demand for electricity. Since then, there have been several reports on mining operations seeking to make significant expansions in areas of North America where electricity and land prices are modest and the climate favors free cooling. For example, mining operations in Wenatchee, WA have been able to take advantage of low-cost electricity and unused distribution capacity left by shuttered industries (namely aluminum and logging). On the other hand, Plattsburgh, NY has banned any additional mining operations from locating there for 18 months due to the impact that these facilities may have on local electricity prices. 4 9884058PDF Image | Bitcoin Mining, Blockchain, and Electricity Consumption
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