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5. Discussion and Conclusions Energy consumption of bitcoin mining is a very controversial topic. There are various estimations. However, these estimations vary considerably from study to study. This paper makes use of 160 GB of blockchain data and data from 269 different hardware models (CPU, GPU, FPGA, and ASIC) that are used for the mining process. We defined two metrics to measure the energy consumption. First is the minimum energy consumption. This metric simply picks the most efficient hardware in use during the recalculation process. However, as we pointed out earlier, this is the theoretical minimum boundary of the consumption. It is unlikely that the all miners will get rid of their existing hardware and buy and start using more efficient hardware the moment it is introduced in the market. The second metric is the profitable maximum. The idea is to measure the cost of electricity and then pick up the worst performing hardware in the market. However, the total cost should be under the price of bitcoin so that the miners will still be able to make a profit. This level will be the theoretical higher consumption boundary since it is not sustainable to continue mining if the operational costs of mining is higher than the price of the bitcoin. The choice of hardware is crucial in the energy consumption. Figure 5 clearly shows that if miners kept using CPU only, by the year 2018 the minimum energy consumption would be higher than the total energy consumption of the United States and China combined [21]. One of the key findings of this paper is that the historical peak of power consumption of bitcoin mining took place during the bi-weekly period commencing on 18 December 2017 with a demand between 1.3 and 14.8 GW. This maximum demand estimation is between the installed capacities of Finland (~16 GW) and Denmark (~14 GW) [21]. During same period, the historical peak energy consumption between difficulty recalculation was about 129.20 TWh per year. Energy consumption is directly affected by the bitcoin prices as well. With falling bitcoin prices, the peak power demand drops as well. In the first half of 2018, the estimated minimum power demand was between 1.34 and 2.80 GW whilst the maximum demand was between 5.14 and 13.82 GW. During June 2018, yearly energy consumption was between 15.47 (minimum) and 50.24 TWh (maximum). It is almost impossible to make a precise estimation of the future energy consumption of bitcoin mining simply due to two reasons. Firstly, the bitcoin prices directly affect mining and hence energy consumption. Especially since 2017, the prices have fluctuated massively in the market, and it is hard to estimate the future value of bitcoin. Secondly, hardware efficiency is another major factor. As many as 269 different hardware models could have been used in mining. Since we scanned all available hardware in the market, as of June 2018, we claim the maximum and minimum estimations of this paper are the theoretical boundaries of the energy consumption of Bitcoin mining. However, on a regular basis, we see a more efficient device introduced in the market almost each month. It is hard to predict the future efficiencies of the devices that manufacturers will introduce. Finally, one more crucial highlight is that by the year 2028, 98.44% of all bitcoins will be produced. The discussion about the energy consumption of bitcoin mining is likely to persist until then. Author Contributions: S.K. prepared the background for the research content and built the energy consumption and power demand methodology. M.Ö. compiled and processed the blockchain data. Funding: This research received no external funding. Acknowledgments: The authors would like to acknowledge M.G. Pollitt from Energy Policy Research Group, University of Cambridge for his contribution in general guidance for this research work. Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.PDF Image | Energy Consumption of Bitcoin Mining
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