Ethereum Network: from Blockchain to Google Trends

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A Big Data Analysis of the Ethereum Network: from Blockchain to Google Trends Dorsa Mohammadi Arezooji Center for Complex Networks and Social DataScience (CCNSD) Department of Physics, Shahid Beheshti University Tehran, Iran d.mohammadiarezooji@se19.qmul.ac.uk Abstract: First, a big data analysis of the transactions and smart contracts made on the Ethereum blockchain is performed, revealing interesting trends in motion. Next, these trends are compared with the public's interest in Ether and Bitcoin, measured by the volume of online searches. An analysis of the crypto prices and search trends suggests the existence of big players (and not the regular users), manipulating the market after a drop in prices. Lastly, a cross-correlation study of crypto prices and search trends reveals the pairs providing more accurate and timely predictions of Ether prices. Keywords: Big Data, Ethereum, Bitcoin, Hadoop, Spark, Cross-correlation, Complexity 1. Introduction Blockchains technology and cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Bitcoin have attracted the rapidly increasing attention of many industries and researchers from various fields. Part of the Blockchain’s appeal to physicists and data scientists stems from its complexity and underlying interdependencies that affect and take influence from other complex systems namely financial and social networks. The intuition behind bringing social networks into consideration while analyzing blockchains, lies within their decentralized structure. At its core, decentralization was introduced to remove heterogeneity from systems. In the case of cryptocurrencies, this would cause governments and central banks to lose their monopoly in financial markets. This would also mean that the network itself (active users) now controls the changes in the blockchain. Needless to say, the power of decentralization depends on how decentralized the network really is. In other words, in the case of disproportionately weighted “central” nodes, the network would be prone to severe heterogeneity threats [1]. Several studies have explored the degree of centrality in decentralized financial networks, revealing that they may not be as decentralized as one would expect [2]. 2. Background The initial idea that led to the birth of blockchain was first proposed in 1990 by S. Haber and W. S. Stornetta. They introduced a novel, computationally feasible set of procedures to timestamp digital data, which would make it impractical to alter the timestamp after its creation [3]. One of the most important implications of this approach is that there would be no need for a third-party service to keep record of the timestamps. Since then, blockchain technology has revolutionized many fields including healthcare [4,5], transportation [6,7], digital forensics [8], and cybersecurity [9,10] due to its reliability, immutability, and transparency. These characteristics are the direct results of the blockchain structure: data is divided into a collection of blocks that are all linked together by means of cryptography. This structure prevents tampering with any arbitrary block without changing all others; hence, achieving immutability. Furthermore, the data stored in any node across the network is visible to all users, thus, transparency is maintained. The decentralized data handling also prevents the two parties in a transaction to retroactively manipulate data stored in the network. In a nutshell, the blockchain establishes a general agreement that verifies the details of a transaction without the need to trust the parties involved [11]. 2.1. The Ethereum Blockchain The Ethereum blockchain is a type of distributed ledger technology (DLT), a general term used for databases that store and share information in a decentralized network of independent nodes. Even though most terms used in the context of Ethereum are not exclusive to this particular blockchain, there are a few terms that are. This section provides a brief introduction to the technical terms related to the Ethereum blockchain that are used in this paper. A comprehensive explanation of terms and concepts can be found in the Ethereum whitepaper (ethereum.org). 2.1.1. Gas On the Ethereum blockchain, the cost of performing transactions or processing smart contracts is measured by gas. The price of gas itself is not constant, but is reported by miners based on the complexity and computational resources required for the execution of each block. Gas fees are calculated in ether (ETH), which is Ethereum’s native currency. The smallest denomination of ether is named wei (1e-18 ETH). Gas price is usually reported in Gwei (1e-9 ETH). 2.1.2. Smart Contract The concept of smart contracts was introduced by N. Szabo in 1994 in an unpublished manuscript and then formally in 1997 [12]. Smart contracts are essentially blockchain-based applications, concisely, self-executing programs which

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