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experience the same dramatic change, possibly pointing to a lack of trust in the cryptocurrency and the blockchain. In any case, in early 2018 the number of transactions on the platform reached its highest as the volume of online searches also hit an all-time high. A rudimentary conclusion could be that an increase in the public’s interest in a cryptocurrency corresponds with an increase in the number of transactions made. Nevertheless, perhaps a more enticing objective is utilizing this information to predict how these factors affect the price of ETH. skyrocketed in early 2018, following a rise in the public’s interest in the crypto market. However, after the similarly sharp fall in search volumes during 2018, crypto prices (especially ETH) did not drop as expected according to the public’s interest. This could be indicative of the existence of another entity other than the ordinary users entering the market: whales (large and powerful entities) holding on until after the drop to invest heavily. This assumption is in accordance with the conclusions made by Griffin and Shams, stating that crypto prices are not solely influenced by supply and demand [17]. Their analysis suggests that the distortion in Bitcoin prices was caused by a large player on Bitfinex using Tether to invest in large sums of Bitcoin. Considering the mechanisms responsible for the change in crypto prices, a statistical analysis of their returns can prove to be beneficial in deciding which assets to invest in. To obtain a stationary time series representing the changes in crypto prices, logarithmic returns of ETH/USD and BTC/USD are computed and plotted against time in fig 4. Fig. 2. Number of transactions vs. online search trends In line with the same analogy as above, the price of ETH and Bitcoin (BTC) are plotted in fig 3, along with their respective search volumes. It is speculated that the surge in ETH/USD in 2018 was correlated with the rise in BTC/USD, which itself was triggered by Tether (USDT). A study of the Bitcoin blockchain by Griffin and Shams showed that Tether-based transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain were timed following the drop in BTC/USD, setting in motion the soaring of Bitcoin prices [17]. Fig. 4. Cryptocurrency log returns over time Fig. 3. Cryptocurrency prices vs. online search trends Comparing the probability density function (PDF) of Ether and Bitcoin’s log returns (fig 5), it can be deduced that both seem to follow a gaussian distribution. However, Bitcoin’s log returns’ PDF appears to be narrower and more peaked than Ether, hence, it would be a more suitable choice for risk-averse investments. Fig. 5. Cryptocurrency log returns histogram At first glance, a side by side analysis of the crypto pair shows a similar trend. Both ETH/USD and BTC/USDPDF Image | Ethereum Network: from Blockchain to Google Trends
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