Predicting Cryptocurrency Returns Based on the Gold Prices

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Sensors 2021, 21, 6319 2 of 16 The emergence of blockchain [5] and decentralized cryptocurrencies has been a cat- alyzed innovation in the financial market. Before the global outbreak of COVID-19, research focused on using the Granger-causality and quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) [6,7] to model the relationship between price change of crude oil, gold, denominated currencies, and other financial markets, on the one hand, and price change of top-ranked cryptocur- rencies, on the other hand [8–12]. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, several studies were conducted to explore the influence of the pandemic intensity on the gold and cryptocurrency market. For example, the asymmetric impacts of COVID-19 on the multifractality of oil and gold prices (and vice-versa) based on upward and downward trends were examined in [13]. They showed that the gold and oil markets during the pre-COVID-19 period were more inefficient during downward (upward) trends, but this has changed during the outbreak period [14]. A type of multivariate GARCH model, named VAR-AGARCH, was used in [15] to examine the return and volatility spillover of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Litecoin (LTC) cryptocurrencies before and during the COVID-19 period. The authors [15] did not compare the performance of the VAR-AGARCH model with modern techniques as machine learning algorithms [16]. The QQR was employed in [17] to explore the asymmetric impact between the changing intensity in the quantiles of COVID-19 and the quantiles of the daily returns of the top-ranked cryptocurrencies. Their numerical results are based on data collected over the first six months of the outbreak of the pandemic. By utilizing these results, contrary to what was indicated in [18], the QQR suggested that BTC, Cardano (ADA), and ETH performed better in comparison with other currencies. The GARCH-MIDAS model adopted in [4] examined the impact of news, during COVID-19, on the predictability of return volatility of cryptocurrencies. They showed that the pandemic increases the volatility of digital currencies compared with the period before the outbreak of COVID-19. A significant causal relationship was shown in [19], in quantiles, between the US dollar and the top five cryptocurrencies during the pandemic, which had a large effect on the digital currencies’ relationship. The impact of the COVID-19 lockdowns on the BTC trading volume was analyzed in [20] by using Apple mobility volume trends and autoregressive-moving-average mod- els [21]. The authors [20] reported that the investors traded more BTCs during the days with low mobility associated with lockdown mandates, even after controlling the stocks and gold prices. In many applications, the support vector machine (SVM) technique [22], a machine learning tool, has shown a superior forecasting performance in linear and non-linear models, especially when the data have outliers, compared with most evolutionary al- gorithms [23]. SVM can be classified into two algorithms: support vector classification (SVC) and support vector regression (SVR) [24]. Both algorithms are computationally intensive and require a large amount of memory, but with the age of big data [25] and quantum computing, this can be affordable. Interest in these algorithms has increased in the cryptocurrency market and it deserves to continue. The discriminant analysis (DA) and SVM algorithms were utilized in [26] to model the subsurface gold mineralization in the northwestern part of Iran. They compared the performance of four classification functions of DA and SVM methods and showed that the SVM algorithm worked better than the DA method. SVM algorithms were applied in [27] to investigate the profitability of the cryptocur- rency market and explore how high they would be. The authors showed that the SVM technique could outperform the benchmark strategies in terms of return-risk relation. They showed that the SVR algorithm provides better results in comparison to ARIMA models. An SVM algorithm based on particle swarm optimization (SVM-PSO) algorithm [28] was proposed in [29] to forecast the future price of cryptocurrency. They reported that the performance of the SVM-PSO technique is better than the SVM algorithm. The ARIMA and SVR models were employed in [3] to predict the daily price of gold, whereas in [30],

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