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Sensors 2021, 21, 6319 9 of 16 Table 1. Characteristics of the top ten cryptocurrencies (14 July 2021). Source: https://coinmarketcap. com (accessed on 29 August 2021). Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Name Symbol Price (in US $) Bitcoin (BTC) 32,822.35 Ethereum (ETH) 1,994.33 Tether (USDT) 1.00 Binance Coin (BNB) 309.41 Cardano (ADA) 1.26 Ripple (XRP) 0.62 USD Coin (USDC) 1.00 Dogecoin (DOGE) 0.20 Polkadot (DOT) 13.67 Binance USD (BUSD) 1.00 Market Capitalization (in US $) 615,635,042,692 232,727,182,406 62,093,784,456 47,473,117,237 40,444,089,747 28,669,334,327 26,668,074,913 25,738,852,158 13,310,832,721 11,579,221,385 Table 2 summarizes the statistics of the daily gold prices and returns of the studied cur- rencies. The averages of the gold price and all cryptocurrencies returns have substantially increased over time, especially during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The p-values based on the JB test strongly reject the hypothesis that the returns are normally distributed, which is coherent with the graphical analysis. During the entire period of the study, gold and currencies have a significant excess kurtosis with negative skewness (except the proba- bility density function of the DOGE returns which has a positive skewness), as noted in Figures 2–4. To examine for a bi-directional causal relationship between the daily number of newly infected cases (deaths) of COVID-19 and the daily gold price (cryptocurrencies returns), we apply the Granger causality test at a lag equal to three. The results are reported in Table 3, which reports that no Granger causality exists. In contrast, we find a significant casualty between the quartiles of the gold price and almost all of the cryptocurrencies returns the next day. According to the findings, contrary to the BNB and DOGE, the returns of the ADA, BTC, and ETH can affect the quartile value of the gold price, but the opposite is not true. In addition, we do not find enough evidence for a causal relationship between the XRP returns and the quartiles of the gold prices. 1.0e+12 7.5e+11 5.0e+11 2.5e+11 0.0e+00 2019−04−01 2019−10−01 2020−04−01 2020−10−01 2021−04−01 Date Cryptocurrency ADA BNB BTC DOGE ETH XRP Figure 3. The market capitalization of the indicated cryptocurrencies. The vertical dotted line represents the threshold between the pre-COVID-19 period (left) and during the COVID-19 period (right) so that the shaded zone represents the period after the pandemic’s beginning to visualize its impact on the cryptocurrency return. Market Capitalization (USD)PDF Image | Predicting Cryptocurrency Returns Based on the Gold Prices
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