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Think:Act 9 Aircraft Electrical Propulsion A BRIEF HISTORY OF AEROSPACE "REVOLUTIONS" Electrification of aircraft has the potential to revolutionise the aerospace and aviation industries. But this is not the first time the industry has been on the cusp of revolution. To fully understand whether the industry is likely to actually change, it is important to reflect on history and place the latest "revolutions" in the context of the constraints of real-world physics and a safety-critical industry. SUPERSONIC FLIGHT The year 1969 saw the first flight of the Concorde and commercial supersonic travel was born, with super- sonic transatlantic flights quickly becoming a regular occurrence and persisting for three decades. How- ever, concerns around noise, high costs per seat and a deadly crash created a fundamentally poor busi- ness case; airlines and aerospace companies were reluctant to take on the large financial and engineer- ing risks required for the development of these air- craft. As a result, commercial supersonic aviation has clearly not become the norm. However, even before the Concorde retired from service, its potential was limited by regulation. In 1973, the FAA banned the use of commercial supersonic air- liners over the contiguous United States due to noise concerns related to its sonic boom, a decision bolstered by movements like the Citizens' League Against the Sonic Boom. The issue with the regulation was not merely its existence, but that it explicitly prohibited travel at speeds greater than Mach 1, rather than set- ting an achievable goal (such as maximum noise level) for engineers to target. As a result, while Concorde's retirement was ultimately due to high operating costs, its business potential was heavily limited by regulation. Strong regulation, which controls safety and per- formance standards, but does not stifle innovation, is thus crucial to the rise of a new technology. How reg- ulators will deal with the new trend of Electrical Pro- pulsion largely remains to be seen. VERY LIGHT JETS A more recent phenomenon which captured popular imagination much like Electrical Propulsion was the Very Light Jet (VLJ) in the early 2000s. These aircraft were initially marketed at a price of USD 1 m, consid- erably below the then selling price of USD 4-5 m for an entry level jet. Around 10 such programmes were launched by both established aerospace companies (including Cessna and Diamond), and by start-ups (such as Eclipse Aviation). Despite forecasts that the skies would be dark- ened by fleets of VLJs, few aircraft were ever pro- duced for four reasons: first, the optimism of the new entrants collided with the physical reality of aerospace technology; second, the idea of inexpe- rienced owner-operators managing fast-flying fleets raised questions about the potential risks to passengers and other airspace users; third, the simple, low cost designs faltered against the rig- orous, safety-driven certification processes; and fourth, new working practices imported from the software industry failed to slash development and production costs. The Very Light Jets trend shares a number of sim- ilarities with the current spate of electrically-pro- pelled aircraft launches, such as a new value proposi- tion, funding from information technology investors, new entrants from outside the aerospace industry, and even a reliance on the air taxi business model (air taxi start-ups such as Dayjet, Nimbus and Pogo placed orders for large fleets of VLJs). Nearly 15 years on, after a litany of programme cancellations and bankruptcies, only the Cessna Mus- tang limps on in production, although the ful- ly-equipped purchase price of this aircraft is now around USD 3.5 m. Whether history repeats itself with electrically-propelled aircraft remains to be seen.PDF Image | Aircraft Electrical Propulsion The Next Chapter of Aviation 2017
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