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18 Think:Act Aircraft Electrical Propulsion ANALOGIES WITH THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY Over the past 5 years the automotive industry has been undergoing rapid change driven by electrification and digitalisation, leading to the entrance of new players and pushing incumbents rapidly to revise their strategies. Alongside accelerating electrification, automated driving and new mobility business models are transforming the industry. The automotive industry has been an ideal environ- ment for the development of new electrification tech- nologies encompassing the powertrain, batteries and electronics. Short product development cycles facili- tate both faster feedback and iterative/spiral develop- ment, while the sheer market size creates economies of scale in R&D (the total value of sales of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles is an order of magnitude larger than sales of civil aircraft). At the same time, regulation in the form of Corporate Aver- age Fuel Emission (CAFE) targets, coupled with spe- cific restrictions in certain areas (e.g. the CARB ZEV regulation, and the banning of diesels manufactured before the year 2000 in Paris), has increased pressure on manufacturers to develop electrically-propelled cars. Finally, some environmentally-conscious con- sumers have demonstrated their willingness to pur- chase electric or hybrid cars, despite higher prices than conventional vehicles. As a result of these mutually reinforcing effects, the adoption of vehicles with all-electric and hy- brid-electrical propulsion is accelerating. Forecast adoption is now at the upper end of the 10 year scenar- ios developed by Roland Berger's Automotive Compe- tence Centre only three years ago – we now expect that over a quarter of new light vehicles will be either all-electric (i.e. battery) or hybrids by 2025. Plug-in hy- brid and Battery Electric Vehicles have now reached mass production and soon all the major automotive OEMs will be producing vehicles of these types. Growth in the supply of electrical vehicles is driving research into increasing the performance and reduc- ing the costs of batteries, and developing technologies that may be applicable to the aerospace industry. Automated driving has been advancing rapidly in paral- lel with increasing electrification. Although not yet per- fected, automated driving is stimulating research into sensors and investment in software control systems. Active safety-critical systems are now commonplace in advanced cars, and significant progress has been made in the way complex systems are developed, risks are identified and mitigated, and redundancy is managed. Tesla, the automotive industry's most well-known new entrant, is at the forefront of these changes, although other new entrants such as Alphabet, Samsung and Uber are also investing heavily. The combination of electrification and automa- tion is enabling new mobility concepts, such as "robo- cabs", wholly autonomous, electrically-propelled vehi- cles that will be sold to fleet operators, operating around the clock in urban environments, and charg- ing around a quarter of the price of traditional taxis. Widespread adoption of robocabs would see new ap- proaches to traffic system management, as well as the replacement of the current fuel network with a system of charging stations. Ultimately, future Urban Air Taxis could share charging infrastructure and build on the approaches developed for ground traffic manage- ment, facilitating the introduction of Urban Air Taxis. Despite similarities, the automotive industry also has some important differences to aerospace: although low weight is important for automotives, it is absolutely critical in aerospace; although concerns over running out of battery charge generate "range anxiety" for car owners, the risk of running out of battery charge is life-threatening for air passengers; and although the au- tomotive industry is regulated strictly to ensure product safety, regulation is even more stringent in aerospace.PDF Image | Aircraft Electrical Propulsion The Next Chapter of Aviation 2017
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