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Think:Act 23 Aircraft Electrical Propulsion Future scenarios for aircraft electrification. Strong technological, regulatory and market de- mand-based barriers must be overcome in order to en- able aircraft electrification. This section focuses on the former two and defines potential future scenarios1): Continued evolution: in which the current trend of increased electrification of aircraft systems carries on, but a lack of major technological breakthroughs prevents further change. Niche application: incremental to Scenario 1, in which technological innovation leads to some niche applications emerging for medium range transports/ business jets. Small scale revolution: incremental to Scenario 2, in which the right enabling technologies, regulatory changes and societal acceptance all emerge to create a boom in Urban Air Taxis. Large scale revolution: incremental to Scenario 3, in which all of aerospace is revolutionised, with the inno- vation of all required technologies to enable at least hy- brid electric Large Commercial Aircraft, and the poten- tial for all electric Large Commercial Aircraft. SCENARIO 1: EVOLUTION A continuation of today's steady trend towards More Electric Aircraft systems would be sufficient to enable this scenario. However, this trend would see an in- crease in electric actuation and electrically powered systems. Electric actuators, such as electric-hydro- static actuators (EHAs), electro-mechanical actuators (EMA), etc., would see an increase in application in flight control system actuation, landing gear actua- tion, thrust reverser actuation, etc. Electrically pow- ered systems would increasingly replace hydraulic or pneumatic systems in applications such as environ- mental control and ice protection, and there would be increased use of components such as MOSFETs, di- odes, power modules and hybrids to power and con- trol pumps and air conditioning systems. Given existing programmes, which already have high levels of electrification, no major regulatory shift would be required to further enable the uptake of elec- trified systems – and in multiple areas of aviation, this could still represent a substantial increase in electrifica- tion. For example, in Large Commercial Aircraft, most current platforms are hydraulically and pneumatically actuated. An increase in electrified systems would result in Tier 1 suppliers and OEMs switching parts and poten- tially suppliers. An increase in electrification of aircraft systems would see the market share of EHA/EBHA/EMA suppli- ers increase, while hydraulic/pneumatic system shares decrease. Aerospace Tier 1s and OEMs, who are down- stream in the value chain (and buy and assemble these components), would not see a significant change and are not expected to experience major changes in market share outside of the regular existing cycle of new pro- gramme launches and contracting. The increase in the electrical power systems market would nevertheless be substantial. Roland Berger mod- elled multiple sub-scenarios of "more electric" plat- forms being introduced into the market. One such sce- nario considered a relatively fast, but still evolutionary, uptake in which both major OEMs introduce a new More Electric Aircraft by 2025. According to the Roland Berger model, it was found that the total installed elec- tricity generation capacity would grow at c. 8% into 2030, compared to c. 3% without the introduction of new further electrified platforms. K 1 These scenarios do not model market demand, support from other important stakeholders such as investors, or specifically how the aerospace landscape may change under each casePDF Image | Aircraft Electrical Propulsion The Next Chapter of Aviation 2017
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