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26 Think:Act Aircraft Electrical Propulsion Several new technologies and regulatory changes would be required to enable this scenario. In particu- lar, regulatory acceptance would have to go far beyond the aerospace industry and cover aspects of urban in- frastructure such as buildings, roads, the electric power grid, etc. Further, significant measures would be required to prevent issues around cyber-security (though this may benefit from existing efforts to enable autonomous cars), as well as systems to control and manage autonomous flight software. Significant adoption of such technology around the world would likely be slow, with each city weighing its in- dividual business case before opening up its skies to the innovation. Dubai, with its plan to allow the VoloCopter as a city taxi, is a trailblazer – similar moves by cities at a larger level will be required to experiment with, prove and roll out a full urban commuter air transportation system. A true emergence of this trend would impact a number of non-core aerospace industries. Urban trans- portation, which currently consists largely of cars, trains and buses, could be significantly disrupted with an aerial option potentially being faster, (if electric then) cleaner, and over time potentially cheaper. Add- ing on to the potential upcoming shift to electric auto- mobiles, the commercial oil industry, which draws sig- nificant business from fuel retail in and around cities, could see a further drop in revenues, as people move away from oil-based energy sources (though this sector is likely to see greater impact from the switch to elec- tric automobiles in the nearer term). Aerospace main- tenance, repair, and overhaul would have an additional segment to service, with potentially much greater vol- umes than existing business; further, serving this seg- ment may need to take on a different delivery model, such as being located closer to major cities. SCENARIO 4: LARGE SCALE REVOLUTION This scenario represents a step change in Electrical Propulsion technology as well as large-scale adoption into service and could result in a reduction in both cost and emissions per passenger seat. Though not being strictly incremental to it, many of the technologies and regulatory changes required for Scenario 3 are subsets of those for Scenario 4. Scenario 4 would see all technological and regula- tory barriers for large commercial electric aircraft lifted. Such a change would usher in an age of electrically pow- ered aviation, with potentially all new medium-large sized aircraft programmes (at the Boeing 737/Airbus 320 level) adopting hybrid- or all-electrical propulsion with fully electric systems. All-electrical propulsion would likely also become widespread for all other classes of air- craft. However, due to the longevity of aircraft pro- grammes, switching would potentially take decades (ret- rofit-ability is not expected due to the vastly different architectures likely required for hybrid-electric and all-electric aircraft). Three classes of aerospace industry players would have to adapt drastically. First, OEMs such as Airbus and Boeing would be ex- pected to pivot new programmes to hybrid- or all-elec- tric options, with the potential for non-typical OEMs entering the business, such as Siemens which has a greater competence with large electrical systems and has already begun experimenting in the field jointly with Airbus. Airframe and systems suppliers would likely fol- low suit, with significant new engineering design and development contracts. Second, the landscape of aircraft engine supply may change drastically, with the core businesses of incum- bents such as General Electric, Rolls-Royce and Pratt & Whitney being under direct threat, and once again with the potential entry of newcomers into the mix. Vertically integrated approaches may also occur, with airframers taking on much of the new propulsion design directly or through existing and new joint ventures. Finally, airports would have to adapt to a ramp down in fuel distribution and a ramp up in electrical infra- structure such as charging stations and potentially loca- lised power stations, while maintenance, repair & over- haul processes would need to be adapted. To ensure airlines can meet airport turnaround time require- ments, service providers will also have to make the cru- cial choice between investing in fast-charging technol- ogy versus investing in additional battery inventory (to allow battery replacements).PDF Image | Aircraft Electrical Propulsion The Next Chapter of Aviation 2017
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