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The way forward for aerospace. Think:Act 27 Aircraft Electrical Propulsion The strong tailwinds in the aerospace industry due to record order books, successful new product launches and re-engining programmes, and ever-increasing produc- tion rates have helped current players to grow and estab- lish strong market positions, often reinforced by mergers and acquisitions. However, the potential shift to Electri- cal Propulsion poses an existential risk to incumbents that do not have solid plans for how to respond, as well as generating opportunities for new entrants. Roland Berger has identified four types of organisa- tion that may be impacted by, or could benefit from, both the evolutionary and disruptive scenarios of air- craft electrification – incumbent aerospace companies, new entrants, investors, and governments. There are two steps that all four types of organisation should take, after which the initial responses diverge depend- ing on whether the organisation is a commercial or governmental entity. BUSINESS CASE FOR ELECTRICAL PROPULSION The first step which all organisations should take is to conduct a clear-headed, dispassionate evaluation of any new electrically-propelled programme which it is considering backing. This business case evalua- tion needs to factor in not only the classic compo- nents of market demand, achievable market share, pricing policy, operating costs and investment re- quirements, but also the likely timing as to when the product will realistically enter service. In this con- text we would recommend a critical analysis of the Programme Management techniques being applied to any new venture (see Roland Berger's publication "Why are so many Aerospace Programmes Late and Over-budget?"), and a scoring of the proposed ap- proach against Roland Berger's Seven Golden Rules of Aerospace Programme Management. The business case analysis also needs to demonstrate how the innovations resulting from Electrical Propulsion transform the operating economics that are achievable with today's products; for instance, proposed air taxi busi- ness models should account for the past failure of previ- ous air taxi ventures based on Very Light Jets, while busi- ness cases related to small, electrically-propelled regional jets should take into account that airlines have struggled to operate 40-50 seat regional jets profitably. We do not discount the fact that some new electri- cally-propelled aircraft will succeed, but strongly rec- ommend that a rigorous analysis of the business case be a pre-requisite for all organisations. MONITOR PROGRESS TOWARDS OVERCOMING THE BARRIERS Previously, we have described some of the technical, reg- ulatory and application-specific barriers to Electrical Pro- pulsion. Drawing on elements of scenario planning de- scribed in Roland Berger's publication "Scenario-based Strategic Planning – Developing Strategies in an Uncer- tain World", we recommend that organisations monitor the key signs ("signposts") that would indicate progress towards overcoming these barriers. The key technical barriers include: energy stor- age capacity per unit weight, where the figure of 500 Wh/kg is widely regarded as the minimum required for electric flight with commercially acceptable pay- load-range characteristics; light, efficient electrical generators and motors in the multi-MW class for air- craft of 10 seats and upwards; power electronics able to convert, condition and switch high voltage power; and autonomous flight control systems required for urban air taxis. Roland Berger, together with our technical partners, has established a clear descrip- tion of best practices in each technical area, againstPDF Image | Aircraft Electrical Propulsion The Next Chapter of Aviation 2017
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