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Executive Summary Goals and timeline In 2009, all stakeholders of the aviation industry committed to a set of ambitious climate action goals, namely: • improving fuel efficiency by 1.5% per annum between 2009 and 2020; • reaching net carbon neutral growth from 2020; • reducing global net aviation carbon emissions by 50% by the year 2050 relative to 2005. Meeting these goals is one of the major challenges for today’s aviation sector. The industry is well on track for the short-term fuel efficiency goal, and ICAO has put in place the CORSIA system (Carbon Offset and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) to achieve the mid-term carbon- neutral growth goal. The long-term 50% carbon reduction goal requires the combined efforts of all aviation stakeholders (aircraft and engine manufacturers, airlines, airports, air navigation service providers and governments). Since the aviation industry committed to this set of goals in 2009, an impressive number of technological solutions contributing to the 2050 goal have been proposed and many related projects have been initiated. These consist of numerous aircraft (airframe and engine) technologies as well as sustainable aviation fuels, operational and infrastructural measures. This roadmap focuses on technologies and design of future aircraft. In the short-to-mid-term, i.e. until about 2035, new commercial aircraft will still be “evolutionary” developments with a traditional tube-and-wing configuration and turbofan engines powered by conventional jet fuel (or a sustainable drop-in equivalent). From 2035 onwards, one can expect “revolutionary” new aircraft configurations and propulsion systems to be ready for entry into service, provided the economic framework conditions are favourable to their implementation. These radically new aircraft designs include, among others, blended wing bodies, strut-braced wings, and hybrid and battery-electric aircraft. Current and planned new aircraft models Numerous new aircraft models in most seat categories have recently entered commercial service or are imminent in the next few years. Under favorable conditions, their fuel burn per available seat-km is typically 15 to 25% less than that of the aircraft models they replace. When considering everyday operational conditions, improvements are usually a few percent lower. Typically, a new aircraft generation replaces older models in the same seat category every 15 to 20 years or so. With the introduction of many new models in the current period (2014 – 2020), this might result in an innovation gap in the second half of the 2020s, before demand for a follow-on of the current new aircraft generation will arise. This could lead to a noticeable slowdown in the average fuel efficiency improvement. Evolutionary aircraft technologies Continuous progress is being achieved in all areas of evolutionary technologies, namely aerodynamics, materials and structures, propulsion and aircraft equipment systems. Some examples of technologies which have recently made noticeable progress are: natural and hybrid laminar flow control, new high-bypass engine architectures as well as aircraft systems such as electric landing gear drives and fuel cells for onboard power generation. By applying combinations of evolutionary technologies, fuel efficiency improvements of roughly 25 to 30% compared to today’s aircraft still appear possible. However, further improvements of the tube-and-wing configuration powered by turbofans are becoming more and more difficult to conceive around 2035. Revolutionary aircraft technologies In the longer term towards 2050, radically new aircraft configurations will be required to reduce fuel burn and carbon intensity significantly. The novel airframe configurations that are currently seen as most promising are the strut-braced wing, the blended wing body, the double-bubble fuselage and the box-wing aircraft. While for a long time blended wing bodies were thought to be a solution optimized for very large aircraft of several hundred seats, it has recently become realistic to design small blended wing bodies of 100 to 200 seats. On the one hand, they do not have the same drawbacks as their large counterparts in terms of airport compatibility and passenger acceptance. On the other hand, they allow improved boarding time and passenger comfort. The most promising propulsion technologies are open rotors, boundary layer ingestion and electric aircraft propulsion. Due to their large weight per unit of stored energy, batteries as primary energy storage for aircraft propulsion place limitations on the size and range of fully battery-powered aircraft. Various categories of hybrid- electric aircraft propulsion exist as well, which use liquid fuel as a primary energy source. They benefit from the high energy efficiency of electric motors and use batteries as an additional energy source for peak loads. Today, several electrically-powered general aviation aircraft types are 7PDF Image | Aircraft Technology Roadmap to 2050
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