Aircraft Technology Roadmap to 2050

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Aircraft Technology Roadmap to 2050 ( aircraft-technology-roadmap-2050 )

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environmental impact of air transport is one of the most important goals of these programs, alongside with improving mobility and passenger satisfaction, cost efficiency, safety and security [5]. • In Europe, Flightpath 2050 [6] sets a vision for aviation to respond with research and technology development to its main challenges, including environment. One of its goals is: “In 2050 technologies and procedures available allow a 75% reduction in CO2 emissions per passenger kilometer.... relative to the capabilities of typical new aircraft in 2000”. The Advisory Council for Aviation Research and Innovation in Europe (ACARE) has established a strategic research and innovation agenda as a route towards those targets [5]. • NASA, in the framework of its Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) program, has set goals for the development of new technologies for future aircraft generations (“N+1/N+2/N+3”) regarding the reduction of fuel consumption, noise and NOx emissions. These refer to the availability of technologies at a relative early technology readiness level (TRL) of 4 to 6 (see definition in Section 2.2). The following goals are set for fuel or energy consumption reduction [7]: o N+2: by 2020, 50% relative to 777-200 (entry into service: 2030 – 2035) o N+3: by 2025, 60% relative to 737-800 (entry into service: 2035 – 2040) In order to achieve these and similar goals, various technology programs focusing on the environment have been established, such as the following: • Since 2010, FAA has been conducting the Continuous Lower Energy, Emissions, and Noise (CLEEN) program, with substantial participation from the US aerospace industry. After a successful initial program (CLEEN I), CLEEN II is running from 2015 to 2020. Its goals “include developing and demonstrating certifiable aircraft technology that reduces aircraft fuel burn”, with a target of 40% [8]. • The Canadian Green Aviation Research and Development Network (GARDN), jointly funded by the Canadian Government’s Business-Led Network of Centres of Excellence (BL-NCE) and the Canadian aerospace industry, supports research and development projects in the areas of “clean, sustainable and silent flying” [9]. • The EU’s Clean Sky 2 Joint Technology Initiative was set up to develop and demonstrate innovative technologies contributing to the “Ultra Green” and “Highly Cost-Efficient Air Transport System” target concepts. One of its objectives is to “increase aircraft fuel efficiency, thus reducing CO2 emissions by 20% (2025) to 30% (2035) compared to ‘state of the art’ aircraft entering into service as from 2014”. The Clean Sky 2 program includes tests on full-scale demonstrators, representative for future aircraft configurations and their operational environment, to ease the implementation of the new technologies into future aircraft design and operations (Clean Sky, 2018). In addition to goals for R&T programs, regulatory measures and operational goals have also been set to ensure lower CO2 emissions of future aircraft. Aviation is the first sector that has agreed on a globally recognized CO2 emissions standard. The UN International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has developed, in collaboration between governments and industry, the new Aeroplane CO2 Emissions Certification Standard [10]. It was adopted by the ICAO Council in 2017 as part of the ICAO environmental standards, which include, for instance, aircraft noise certification. The CO2 standard has been developed to assess the technology level of the aircraft design, considering propulsion, aerodynamics and weight, but excluding operational aspects. It encourages aircraft design including more fuel-efficient technologies, which lead to higher margins to the certification limits. The CO2 standard will apply to subsonic jet and turboprop aircraft that are new type (NT) designs from 2020, as well as to those aircraft type designs that are in-production (InP) in 2023 and undergo a change. InP aircraft that do not meet the standard can no longer be produced from 2028, unless the designs are modified to comply with the standard. An example of an operational goal supporting the implementation of new aircraft technologies relates to the plans of electrifying aviation in Norway. Avinor, the public operator of most Norwegian airports, in conjunction with the Norwegian government, aims at operating all short-haul flights (up to 90 minutes on domestic routes and those to neighboring Scandinavian airports) with electric aircraft by 2040[11]. 12 Regulatory measures and operational goals can support the implementation of new aircraft technologies. Government-funded programs in various countries are an effective means to support R&T activities in aviation.

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