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2. Evolutionary Aircraft Technologies Evolutionary aircraft technologies are those that can be fixed on a classical tube-and-wing aircraft configuration with jet fuel-powered turbofan engines. Within the next 15 to 20 years, all new technologies for commercial aircraft will still be evolutionary, as radically new configurations will require more time to reach technical maturity. The current progress of evolutionary technologies allows the short- term carbon reduction goal to be met until 2020 (1.5% average annual fuel efficiency improvement). They have a potential to improve fuel efficiency in the order of 30% by around 2030 compared to 2005. However, beyond around 2035, further fuel efficiency potential from evolutionary technologies may slow down [12]. Evolutionary technologies can be classified into several categories, depending on their way of implementation: Retrofits 2.1. Baseline Fleet and Imminent Aircraft The aircraft fleet in service in 2017 constitutes the baseline for this roadmap, see Table 1. A range of new aircraft in various seat categories is planned to enter service in the next few years (“Imminent aircraft”). Each aircraft model replaces older generation models of similar size and range. Typically, the new models are 15% to 25% more fuel efficient than their predecessors. The design of the imminent aircraft is already well defined and their entry into service is fixed. Fuel-efficiency characteristics of imminent aircraft are known with a reasonably high degree of confidence, allowing a reliable forecast of their impact upon global fleet efficiency. After the entry into service of the new aircraft models shown in Table 1, major new aircraft programs have not yet been officially announced. However, towards the end of 14 Production New Aircraft Upgrades Designs Evolutionary technologies have a potential to improve fuel efficiency in the order of 30% by around 2030 compared to 2005, well beyond 2030 however, their potential may slow down. 2018, plans for new “middle-of-the-market” aircraft in the 210-300 seat category have become more concrete. Boeing is studying concepts for a clean-sheet New Midsize Aircraft (NMA, unofficially named “797”), initially envisaging a market entry around 2025 [13], although the project has recently got lower priority [14]. Its first version would seat 225 passengers at 5000 nm range, to be followed two years later with a version for 265 passengers at 4500 nm. As the main innovative features, the proposed design could include an ovoid fuselage and a fuel-efficient shorter engine inlet design [15]. Airbus is envisaging an A321XLR with 4500 nm range, as a longer-haul version of the 4000-nm-range A321LR with a maximum capacity of 244 passengers. Recent news indicate that Airbus is considering a new clean-sheet narrow-body jet as well as a re-engined A350neo wide- body, for entry into service in the middle of the next decade [16]. In the highest seat categories, a potential A380 upgrade was envisaged before the announcement of stopping the A380 production. The typical time between aircraft generations succeeding each other is around 15 to 20 years, sometimes longer.PDF Image | Aircraft Technology Roadmap to 2050
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