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4.4. Annual CO2 Improvements at Global Fleet Level From these graphs it can be seen that the modelling shows a strong average fuel efficiency improvement in the current years (2015 β 2020), thanks to the introduction of a large number of new aircraft. Obviously, short-term operational aspects, such as reactions to fuel price fluctuations or higher fuel burn for diversions caused by conflict zones of overflight bans, cannot be considered in the model. In the mid-term (mid-2020s to early 2030s), an annual fuel efficiency improvement significantly lower than today is observed, which can be explained mainly by the lack of new aircraft models in most seat categories. In the long term (from about 2035), the entry into service of new aircraft types in many seat categories accelerates the fuel and carbon efficiency again, showing the importance of novel technologies, the introduction of electric propulsion clearly having the strongest impact. Year-on-year CO2 intensity improvements for each of the modelling scenarios described above are calculated based on average world fleet CO2 intensities, defined as: πΆπΆππ ππππππππππππππππππ = ππππππππππ πΆπΆππ2 ππππππππππππππππππ [ππππ] 2 πππππππ‘π‘ππ π π π π π π Year-on-year changes of the CO2 intensity of the global fleet are shown in Figure 43 (IATA DOWN forecast), Figure 44 (IATA BASE forecast) and Figure 45 (IATA UP forecast). Negative values represent an improvement (CO2 intensity reduction) compared to the previous year. Figure 44: IATA DOWN scenario. Year-to-year improvement in CO2 intensity of the global fleet, for technology scenarios T1, T2, T3, T4a (left), T1, T2, T3, T4b (right) 41PDF Image | Aircraft Technology Roadmap to 2050
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