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6. Conclusions and Recommendations 6.1. Conclusions From this report, it can be seen that a broad range of technological innovations is under development to improve aircraft fuel efficiency and reduce their CO2 emissions. The global focus on climate action has triggered a strongly increased intensity of research and technology (R&T) activities to improve energy efficiency and expand the use of renewable energies. More specifically, R&T in aviation has been inspired by the Industry’s high-level goal to reduce the global CO2 footprint of air transport by 2050 compared to 2005, and similar goals and targets. A number of conclusions can be drawn from the assessment of these technologies: • There has been a constant evolution of the current tube-and-wing aircraft configuration powered with hydrocarbon fuel combustion engines. Since the early jet age, aircraft fuel burn per passenger-km has been reduced by over 70%, and there is potential to reduce today’s fuel burn by another 30% approximately without going to radically different aircraft configurations and propulsion. The potential of these evolutionary technologies, mostly in the areas of aerodynamics, lightweight materials and structures, new engine architecture and aircraft systems, will however diminish over the years. Evolutionary technologies will thus not be enough to keep a similar CO2 emissions reduction rate as today and contribute significantly to the 2050 CO2 emissions reduction goal, more radical configuration changes will be required in addition. • In the period between the early 2020s and the early 2030s, there are currently no concrete announcements for new aircraft programs in most seat categories so far. The only exception is the “middle-of- the-market” segment between 210 and 300 seats, where discussions about potential new aircraft models have recently become more intense. However, no development program has been officially launched so far. Although new technologies are expected to reach maturity during this period, they could be prevented from implementation due to the lack of new aircraft programs. Furthermore, fleet renewal might also become less attractive if no brand-new fuel-efficient aircraft are available. • Many of the revolutionary aircraft technology concepts offer other benefits than fuel efficiency. Two examples: (a) Electric propulsion systems require much lower maintenance efforts and costs than combustion engines. (b) Small blended wing bodies allow faster boarding and disembarking than similarly sized single- aisle aircraft. This leads to shorter turnaround times and better daily aircraft utilization. These direct operating cost (DOC) benefits need to be added to fuel cost savings when establishing the business case for new aircraft models from an airline perspective. Lower DOCs compared to existing aircraft models could justify a higher aircraft purchase price to a certain extent, however, it is important to keep in mind that aircraft prices remain accessible to airlines and do not reach a level where they present a prohibitive risk. • Investing in sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and offsetting emissions through market-based measures such as CORSIA may appear easier and cheaper than implementing radically new aircraft and propulsion technologies. However, the available quantities of SAF feedstock and production are likely to be limited; the same is expected for greenhouse gas reduction projects underlying the generation of offset credits. Reducing the industry’s fuel demand through the development and use of significantly more efficient aircraft helps reducing the demand for SAF and offset credits. 6.2. Recommendations • Airlines are under public pressure to achieve substantial carbon reductions in future. They should clearly articulate their interest in aircraft with strong fuel efficiency improvements, including radically new ones in the longer term, to give aircraft manufacturers the confidence in potential demand that they need for starting new developments. It needs to be taken into account that the lead time for radically new aircraft is significantly longer than for conventional configurations. • Airlines should work with governments to stress the importance of publicly funded research and technology to achieve the aviation industry’s carbon reduction goals. • Although numerous studies have been done on revolutionary aircraft configurations and technologies, more specific investigations on the implementation of 45PDF Image | Aircraft Technology Roadmap to 2050
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