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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2011, 8 3782 Figure 2. Historical airfares and inflation. Source: Henwood [22]. An interesting trend is that air travel volume rather increased while airfares rose, regardless of high oil prices. Figure 3 shows that air travel demand increased continuously throughout the 1970s and 1980s. Passenger and freight volume showed a visible dip only in the early 1990s due to economic depression and intense competition [24] and after September 11, 2001. Surprisingly, air travel did not decrease during the two oil shocks. This shows that the convenience of air travel continued to attract air travelers. To be more specific, the first oil shock did not cause airfares to increase so the passenger volume did not shrink. The second oil shock, however, did pull up airfares, but people continued to fly because air travel enabled significant convenience in long distance and leisure travel [4]. To further explain why airfares and air travel volume increase together, we must examine trends in people’s disposable income. Figure 4 shows air travel increases quite linearly with respect to gross domestic product (GDP). The evolution of this passenger transport is driven by two factors. One is the travel money budget, which indicates that humans dedicate a fixed share of their income to travel. The other factor is the travel time budget, which describes that humans spend an average of 1.1 hours on travel per day in a wide variety of economic, social, and geographic settings. Thus, human mobility rises as income level rises while the constant travel time budget pushes people towards faster transport modes as their demand for mobility increases [4]. As a result, continuing growth in world population and GDP are expected to lead to a high growth in air travel demand in the future, due to the convenience and time saving associated with air transport. If the strong growth in air travel continues, world air traffic volume may increase up to five- to twenty-fold by 2050 compared to the 1990 level and account for roughly two-thirds of global passenger-miles traveled [4,10].PDF Image | Analysis of Technological Innovation and Environmental Performance Improvement in Aviation Sector
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