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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2011, 8 3783 Figure 3. Historical trend in air traffic volume. Source: International Air Transport Association (IATA) [24]. When passengers were willing to pay more even under higher fuel costs and airfares, manufacturers or operators had relatively less incentive to invest in radical technological innovations because they were guaranteed sustainable revenues. Furthermore, the cost of switching to a radically improved technology (e.g., non-fossil fuels) has been too high and takes too long for development. Innovations in aircraft technology are hindered by the relatively long lifespan and large capital and operating cost of individual aircraft, and the inherent lag in the adoption of new technologies throughout the aviation fleet as a result. It has typically taken 10–15 years for the US fleet to achieve the same fuel efficiency as that of newly introduced aircraft. This process of technology uptake depends on various cost factors and market signals. In assessing future aviation fuel consumption and emissions, it is important to consider this time delay between technology introduction and its full absorption by the world fleet. Furthermore, the development programs for new aircraft typically begin 7–10 years before the inaugural aircraft is certified, and basic research required to support the new technology typically precedes the beginning of the development programs by several years. Thus, the time required for ideas to make the transition from basic research to fleet impact can be as much as 25 years. Perhaps most importantly, the cost of change is uncertain. Airlines are willing to pay higher acquisition costs if they can save in direct operating costs, mainly through lower fuel and maintenance costs during the lifetime of aircraft. However, it is unclear whether future technologies can be delivered at an acceptable price. If the price is too high, airlines may choose not to pay more for energy saving technologies, in which case further improvements in energy use for the aviation sector may bePDF Image | Analysis of Technological Innovation and Environmental Performance Improvement in Aviation Sector
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