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(EC) also issued a directive in 1975 restricting the use of gas for power generation.39 During this same period, Brown-Boveri, a European turbine manufacturing company, virtually shut down its gas turbine business. Westinghouse allowed its gas turbine development program to flounder and almost sold it to its partner, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) in 1987. New reserves were discovered throughout the 1980s and concerns about the rapid expiration of gas supply vanished later in the decade. Exploration activity from 1980-1986 showed that natural gas could be found in prolific quantities. By 1986, the US was found to have over 50 years of conventional gas resources.40 The Fuel Use Act was finally rescinded in 1987 and spurred a large growth in interest in gas turbines.41 The EC directive restricting gas use in power generation was also lifted. Estimates of gas reserves have continued to grow, assuring generators that gas will remain an available fuel. Over the last two decades, estimated reserves have increased by 94 percent.42 By 1991, estimates of natural gas reserves ranged from 4384-4682 trillion cubic feet.43 By 1996, the world proven gas reserves had expanded to 4933 trillion cubic feet. Proven reserves are the estimated quantities that analysis of geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. On a worldwide basis, these known reserves would be sufficient to maintain production at current rates for over 60 years.44 It is important to note that natural gas demand is expected to grow by over 76 percent over current levels by 2015, increasing from 70 trillion cubic feet per year to about 133 trillion cubic feet per year.45 Despite this increase in demand, the current estimates of gas reserves are so tremendous that GE estimates that the currently-known supply of gas should exceed almost 70 years. This can be seen in Figure 11, which shows how the years of gas supply stagnated during the late 1970s, but have increased since then. This implies that the availability of fuel stretches past the horizon of expected plant life of any turbine manufactured in this generation. As such, this assurance of a future natural gas supply helps to build utility and non-utility generators’ demand for gas and combined cycle turbines, in turn fueling greater manufacturer research and development in the field. 39 W J Watson, “The ‘Success’ of the Combined Cycle Gas Turbine” Opportunities and Advances in International Power Generation, University of Durham Conference Publication, March 18-20, 1996, London: Institution of Electrical Engineers, 1996. p. 89. 40 Gray and Nakayama, U.S.-Japan Energy Policy Considerations for the 1990’s, Maryland: University Press of America, 1988. p. 46. 41 Goncalves, Chuang, and Cohn, “Advanced Gas Turbine Systems,” May 1996, p. 16. 42 EIA, “Natural Gas” www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo96/gas.html#head p. 2 43 EIA, Office of Oil and Gas, “International Oil and Gas Exploration and Development, 1991” November, 1993, Appendix B. 44 EIA, “Natural Gas” www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo96/gas.html#head p. 3 45 EIA, Ibid., p. 1 23PDF Image | Energy RD Performance: Gas Turbine Case Study
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