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subsystem environment. These tests take the form of an engine endurance test and an altitude qualification test. 4.3 Quantification of Risk In order to attempt to quantify risk, we must first understand its definition as used in this thesis2 1 : Risk = (Probability of Failure) * (Consequence of Failure) Risk has many different forms that sometimes call for different methods of assessment and mitigation. Some of the different areas of risk associated with aerospace development programs are financial risk due to tight development budgets, technical risk due to design uncertainty and the desire to insert technological innovation, and schedule risk due to aggressive development program schedules. They all have two things in common; 1) managers must constantly assess their programs for the presence ofrisk and, 2) once risky areas are identified, it is likely that they will adversely affect the development program if left unmitigated. Unfortunately, aerospace development programs are fraught with all three ofthese types of risks due to the high cost of product development, the need to constantly improve capability and reduce cost of an extremely complex product, and pressure to be first to market for new and improved products. This work focuses on risk induced by design and requirement uncertainty. As with nearly any complex system, the design uncertainty in a jet engine program can be significant in the early stages. As discussed previously, the outcome of the design of the major engine modules (turbomachinery, exhaust system, control laws, etc.) provides the design requirements 21 Browning, Tyson R "Modeling and Analyzing Cost, Schedule, and Performance in Complex System Product Development." PhD Thesis, Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology, 1999. 77PDF Image | Improving Gas Turbine Engine Control System
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