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12 UMass Donahue Institute There is a temptation to attribute the hardships borne by laid-off aircraft engine workers in New England to the end of the Cold War. Indeed, the events of the late 1980s and early 1990s con- tributed to a decline in sales to the U.S. govern- ment of 57 percent between 1988 and 1997, as measured in real terms. This decline in itself, however, is not sufficient to explain the magni- tude of job cuts experienced during the 1990s. If commercial sales had continued at the pace of growth witnessed during the 1980s, changes in demand in the two market segments would have largely offset one another and stabilized total sales. That situation was actually the case for the first two years of the military sales downturn. Commercial sales climbed to levels that more than offset the loss in military business, reaching a peak at $9.8 billion in 1990. Then disaster struck the industry. A widespread, global recession that set in during 1991 forced airlines across the world to cancel or postpone purchases until air traffic rebounded. As a result of this dual downturn in orders, the industry ex- perienced a 39 percent drop in sales between 1990 and 1994.28 The magnitude of the decline in employment (47 percent since 1988) appears to be out of line with the scale of the contraction of demand experienced by the industry. What of the longer run, however? At the time of the industry downsizing, many observers re- marked that along with the pain of downsizing would come a “peace dividend.” Land, labor, and capital would be freed up and the workings of a dynamic U.S. market economy would ensure that those resources would be efficiently reemployed elsewhere in the economy. Indeed, this has taken place. The U.S. and New England economies have been robust: corporate earnings have been up, and economic growth moved at a healthy clip throughout the second half of the 1990s.PDF Image | JET ENGINE MANUFACTURING IN NEW ENGLAND
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