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xiv Military Jet Engine Acquisition In our statistical analysis, we explore most of the possible perfor- mance, programmatic, and technology parameters that affect devel- opment and production costs and the development schedules of engines. We employ least-squares regression methods to develop a series of parametric relationships for forecasting the development cost, development time, and production cost of future military turbofan engine programs. TECHNICAL BACKGROUND The first part of this report provides basic concepts on how engines operate, the parameters used to compare engines, development pro- cess alternatives, and likely future trends in jet engine technologies. An understanding of these concepts, alternatives, and trends should help both program managers and cost analysts to employ the cost- estimating relationships (CERs) described in the second part of this report and should facilitate conversations about jet engines and what affects their costs. We describe various engine performance parameters and develop- ment approaches. The engine community uses these parameters to rate the quality and performance of individual components used as independent variables in CERs. In addition, we discuss other factors such as environmental requirements (for pollution control, noise abatement, and such), new performance requirements (stealth and thrust vectoring), and maintenance requirements (such as prognos- tic health monitoring systems and reliability and maintainability im- provements programs) that influence an engine’s life-cycle costs and have implications for the engine CERs explored in this report. While these factors and other new technologies could increase or de- crease costs, it is nearly impossible to identify every future cost driver when a CER is being developed. However, because the CERs are often based on historical data and performance metrics, they do not reflect the influences of these new factors on costs. Therefore, an analyst should consider the influence of these new factors when forecasting the cost of future military engines.PDF Image | Military Jet Engine Acquisition Technology Basics and Cost-Estimating Methodology
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