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2 Military Jet Engine Acquisition UPDATING OF PREVIOUS STUDY METHODS The methodology for estimating aircraft engine costs has tradition- ally been based on historical cost data on various aircraft engines; typically, the data are on development and production costs and aircraft quantities produced by engine type. These costs are used as the dependent variables in statistical regression analyses. Explana- tory variables or estimating parameters typically include such factors as engine turbine inlet temperature, airflow, thrust-to-weight ratio, and some technology and maturity proxies. The products of the regression analysis are equations that are referred to as “cost- estimating relationships” (CERs). The most recent RAND studies that used this approach were Nelson (1977) and Birkler, Garfinkle, and Marks (1982). This study updates the 1977 and 1982 studies in three ways: 1. We use a more recent set of cost data provided by the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) to capture the effect of technologi- cal evolution that has occurred over the past two decades. Changes in technology that have occurred over the past five decades are summarized in Table 1.1. 2. We segregate the turbofan engine cost data from the turbojet and turboshaft cost data. This approach provides a more homogenous population for the parametric cost analysis. 3. We treat each engine model (or “dash number”) as a separate ob- servation, unlike the earlier studies, which did not explicitly ad- dress how to treat a family of engine types. THE ORGANIZATION AND CONTENT OF THIS REPORT This report is divided into two parts: “Engine Basics and Perfor- mance Parameters” in Chapter Two and Chapter Three, and “Data Analysis and Cost-Estimating Techniques” in Chapters Four through Six. In Chapter Seven, we present our overall conclusions. Chapter Two presents an introductory discussion of jet engine basics and engine performance parameters that affect costs. The govern- ment and industry engine acquisition and engineering communities use a variety of parameters to assess and compare the quality andPDF Image | Military Jet Engine Acquisition Technology Basics and Cost-Estimating Methodology
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