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Chapter Four AN OVERVIEW OF COST-ESTIMATING METHODS Estimating future costs and development schedules is one of the most difficult tasks that analysts face. There are three basic methods to conceptual cost estimation: bottom-up, estimate by analogy, and parametric approach (Fisher, 1974, p. 75). This chapter provides an overview of the three main methods used in estimating turbofan engine costs. We discuss the details of each methodology along with their advantages and disadvantages. BOTTOM-UP METHOD The bottom-up approach relies on detailed engineering analysis and calculation to determine an estimate. To apply this approach to air- craft engine production costs, an analyst would need the detailed design and configuration information for various engine compo- nents and accounting information for all material, equipment, and labor. A conceptual engine design is built from scratch (hence the name “bottom-up”). This approach generates a fairly detailed fore- cast. One of the advantages of this approach is that many issues can be addressed, and the effect of each issue can be well understood. For example, we could isolate the effect of choosing a new material in construction or a new manufacturing method. All of the represen- tatives from engine producing companies whom we interviewed during the course of this study indicated that they employ some form of this bottom-up approach to estimating aircraft engine costs. However, the bottom-up method has some drawbacks. First, the analysis process is time consuming. Often, a great deal of time must be spent generating the conceptual design and corresponding cost 41PDF Image | Military Jet Engine Acquisition Technology Basics and Cost-Estimating Methodology
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