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Estimating Parameters and Gathering Data 49 studies. Delta TOA is the difference between the predicted model qualification test (MQT) date and the actual MQT date. This measure assumes that technological trends or improvements are monotonic with time and can be measured by technical characteristics of an engine. Thus, a predicted TOA can be generated through parametric analysis of technical characteristics. A positive delta TOA would im- ply an advanced development—an engine beating the overall devel- opment trend. Conversely, a negative delta TOA implies an engine that lags the overall technology development trend. We attempted to recreate the delta TOA technical risk metric from previous RAND studies. However, when we tried to reestimate the relationship for TOA using the original formulation used in those studies, we found that certain independent parameters were highly correlated with one another—namely pressure was correlated with rotor inlet temperature and thrust was correlated with weight. Also, the parameters for thrust and specific fuel consumption were not significant. We revised the parametric relationship (the mathemati- cal regression model we discuss in detail in Chapter 6) based on the new data. The main parameters we then included were dry weight and rotor inlet temperature. Details of this analysis can be found in Appendix A. A measure of risk related to the delta TOA is the state-of-the-art (SOA) metric (Greer, 1989). Whereas delta TOA focuses on the trend of technological advancement over time for the overall population of aircraft engines, the SOA measure does not focus on the overall trend but rather concentrates on the trend in the best-demonstrated per- formance. This approach is an attempt to measure how the cutting edge of engine development evolves. Dividing the actual perfor- mance of an engine at a given time by the best performance of an engine at that given time defines the metric. The smaller the number, the further from the state-of-the-art an engine is. Figure 5.1 shows an example of the SOA metric for turbine engine rotor inlet temperature as a function of the approval date for low- production rate (LPR).1 The best (highest) points at a given time are ______________ 1Soon after the development of an engine is complete, the engine is produced in small quantities (low-production rate) before ramping up to full production (using maxi- mum production capacity).PDF Image | Military Jet Engine Acquisition Technology Basics and Cost-Estimating Methodology
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