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Estimating Parameters and Gathering Data 55 requirements might make the development of the same engine more difficult for one service than for another. A program with many de- sign changes would also be more expensive to develop than one with fewer changes. Criteria for Including Parameters Ideally, we would like to include parameters from all three groups— performance and physical, technical risk and design maturity, and programmatic—in developing parametric relationships for aircraft engines. However, there are some limitations to including every pa- rameter. First, we must have all the relevant data for any parameter we wish to include in developing a parametric relationship (more de- tails on data are covered in the next section). Another major consid- eration is that the parameter must make sense—i.e., a rationale must exist for why a particular parameter correlates with the dependent variable. This rationale should be straightforward. The parameter must also be valid from a statistical standpoint. We will apply the following statistical criteria to parameters (independent variables) presented later in the report: • The use of a parameter does not exclude many of the observa- tions in the data sample because of missing information. • The mathematical sign on the coefficient of the regression model must be consistent with the rationale for the inclusion of the parameter/independent variable. • The parameter must be significant (the probability that the coef- ficient is zero must be less than 5 percent), and the significance is not driven by a few leveraging observations. • The parameter is not highly correlated with any other parameter that is of greater significance. • The distribution of residuals with respect to the parameter is random and normal with constant variance. Now that we have covered the criteria for the use of parameters, we turn to data collection and the normalization process.PDF Image | Military Jet Engine Acquisition Technology Basics and Cost-Estimating Methodology
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