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64 Military Jet Engine Acquisition It is important to note that we are not showing cause and effect be- tween any two given variables but, rather, statistically significant correlations between any two given variables. Table 6.1 presents all the parameters we explored in determining each parametric rela- tionship for engine cost and development times and outlines the rea- son for retaining them or rejecting them from the analysis. Note that we may have explored one or more forms of a parameter (e.g., the log of a parameter). The table summarizes all the “best” regression anal- ysis results for a particular parameter. In the following section, we report the results of our regression anal- ysis for development cost, development time, and production unit cost, along with relevant statistical information such as residual error (i.e., root mean square error [RMSE]), R-squared, and the t-statistic. (At the end of this chapter, we present our recommended parametric estimating relationships.) DEVELOPMENT COST Development cost includes all costs to design, develop, and test an engine. Engine programs and the corresponding parameters that were used in this analysis are identified in Tables 6.2 and 6.3.2 The parametric relationships for aircraft engine development cost are described next along with some summary statistical information. Based on our assessment, the development cost data are separated into two populations of engines: 1. New Engines. New engines are engines that employ advanced technology, are a new centerline development, or are the first en- gines in a series order.3 If any of these criteria apply, the engine falls into this category, even if the engine is a follow-on engine in a series. The New Engine column in Table 6.3 identifies with a 1 _____________________________________________________________ those variables that best explain the independent variable and avoid having two vari- ables that are closely linked and represent the same effect, such as technological im- provement or technological changes. 2Data on all the engines listed in Tables 6.2 and 6.3 do not necessarily include both development cost and schedule information. For some of the engines, we were able to obtain only development cost or schedule data. 3See Chapter Five for a detailed discussion of engine development categories.PDF Image | Military Jet Engine Acquisition Technology Basics and Cost-Estimating Methodology
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