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Chapter Seven CONCLUSIONS In this report, we presented a parametric estimating method for forecasting military turbofan engine development costs, develop- ment schedules, and production costs. We first discussed the techni- cal parameters that drive both engine development cost and pro- duction cost. We then presented a quantitative analysis of actual historical data on engine costs. Our principal focus was on adding new observations to the cost- estimating database from earlier RAND studies (Large [1970]; Nelson [1977]; Birkler, Garfinkle, and Marks [1982]) and updating the para- metric relationships for aircraft turbofan engine cost and develop- ment times. We used a more recent set of cost data provided by NAVAIR to capture the effect of technological evolution that has oc- curred over the past two decades. We also extended and improved upon the prior RAND studies in a couple of ways. Most of the previ- ous engine cost studies group turbojet and turbofan engine types into the same population. In this study, we focused exclusively on parametric relationships for turbofan engines. As such, we segre- gated the turbofan engine cost data from turbojet and turboshaft cost data. This approach provides a more homogenous population for the parametric cost analysis. In addition, we treated each engine model (or “dash number”) as a separate observation, whereas the earlier studies did not explicitly address how to treat a family of engine types. In our statistical analysis, we explored most of the possible perfor- mance, programmatic, and technological parameters that affect en- gine development costs, production costs, and development sched- 85PDF Image | Military Jet Engine Acquisition Technology Basics and Cost-Estimating Methodology
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