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86 Military Jet Engine Acquisition ules. Our results indicate that rotor inlet temperature is a significant variable in most of the reported estimating relationships. With the exception of new-engine versus derivative-engine parameters and full-scale test hours parameters, there were no other significant technical maturity/risk measures that correlated with the costs or development schedule for military jet engines. Disappointingly, the residual error for the development cost and de- velopment time estimating relationships is rather high, particularly for the derivative engines. These relationships are useful only at the conceptual stage of engine technology development and require caution in how they are used in view of their range of uncertainty. The results of our analysis also indicate that an advanced-technology new engine design would have significantly higher development costs and would take longer to develop than a derivative engine using evolutionary technologies. Finally, given the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the direc- tion of future military aircraft engine development, cost analysts should continue working with the engine manufacturing industry to monitor changes in practice and technology that will be incorpo- rated into the aircraft that are the subject of their cost-estimating studies. Those analysts should also continue collecting data on the actual cost of aircraft jet engine development and production. Both practices will improve the quality of future cost-estimating tools.PDF Image | Military Jet Engine Acquisition Technology Basics and Cost-Estimating Methodology
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