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Appendix A AN EXAMINATION OF THE TIME OF ARRIVAL METRIC In several previous RAND reports1 on aircraft engine production and development costs, the authors employed a measure of technical maturity called the delta time of arrival (delta TOA). This metric is the difference between the predicted TOA and actual TOA (see Chapter Five). The predicted TOA is the forecast date that a particu- lar engine model should enter low-rate production (or it is the MQT) based on the engine’s technical characteristics. More technically ad- vanced engines have a later TOA than less advanced ones. Therefore, a positive delta TOA would mean that an engine was produced sooner than was forecast; thus, the engine has a higher degree of technical risk. In this appendix, we discuss in detail an updated TOA metric and the use of delta TOA as a measure of aircraft engine technical advancement.2 UPDATING THE TOA METRIC Based on our expanded sample of aircraft engines (compared with prior RAND studies), we reestimated the CER for TOA. The updated regression output (using the original formulation but including ad- ditional data), which includes both turbojet and turbofan engines, is shown in Table A.1. ______________ 1See Large (1970); Anderson and Nelson (1972); Nelson and Timson (1974); Nelson (1977); and Birkler, Garfinkle, and Marks (1982). 2The discussion in this appendix assumes some knowledge of statistics on the part of the reader. For those without a statistics background, we can recommend the follow- ing basic texts: Berenson and Levine (1996) and Stata Reference Manual (1999). 87PDF Image | Military Jet Engine Acquisition Technology Basics and Cost-Estimating Methodology
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