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An Examination of the Time of Arrival Metric 89 of the maximum dynamic pressure in the flight envelope and the pressure ratio of the engine.” We did not have the maximum dy- namic pressure for the engines in our sample, so we simply used the pressure ratio. We can make two important observations about the original delta TOA relationship. First, the specific fuel consumption and maximum thrust terms are not significant with the expanded data sample (compared with the prior studies). Also, the sign on the coefficient for the thrust term (lnmaxfn) is incorrect (the negative sign implies that lower-thrust engines are expected to reach production later than higher-thrust ones). One can better understand this lack of signifi- cance by examining in Table A.2 the correlation coefficients for the two variables (specific fuel consumption and maximum thrust) that drop out of the regression. Notice that some of the independent terms shown in Table A.2 are highly correlated with one another—specifically, the correlation pairs lnritf with lnopr, lnopr with lnmaxfn, and lndrywt with ln- maxfn. It is not appropriate to have such highly correlated terms as independent variables in a regression equation. The high correlation with other variables makes the coefficients for lnsfc and lnfnmax in- significant. The second observation we can make about the original TOA formu- lation is that the residual errors are not uniformly distributed. Figure A.1 shows the residual error plotted versus the predicted TOA value. Notice how the residual dispersion expands with larger predicted values.3 ______________ 3For more statistically inclined readers, the Cook-Weisberg test for heteroscedasticity using fitted values of newTOA shows the following: Ho: Constant variance chi2(1) = 12.29 Prob > chi2 = 0.0005 These results indicate a fairly significant problem with heteroscedasticity. See Cook and Weisberg (1982) and “Diagnostics for Heteroscedasticity ...,” (1983).PDF Image | Military Jet Engine Acquisition Technology Basics and Cost-Estimating Methodology
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