Military Jet Engine Acquisition Technology Basics and Cost-Estimating Methodology

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92 Military Jet Engine Acquisition Table A.1.4 However, as is evident from the “fan” binary term, the turbojet engines do behave differently. Turbofan engines are forecast to arrive later, all other factors being equal, but the TOA does not have as strong a dependence on lnritf. To be consistent with our analysis that centers solely on turbofan engines, we arrive at a TOA for fan engines only, as shown in Table A.4. The term FIS, or “first in series,” is a binary term to denote the first engine in a series (1 is true; 0 is false). In other words, when FIS is zero, the engine is a derivative.5 Note the significantly poorer R- squared, but the RSME remains about the same as compared with Source Model Residual Total lnnewTOA lnritf lndrywt FIS _cons Sum of Squares 2.11 1.93 4.04 Standard Coefficient Error 1.62 0.22 –0.16 0.05 –0.12 0.05 –6.25 1.66 Table A.4 Turbofan-Engine-Only TOA Degrees of Freedom 3 52 55 t- statistic 7.213 –3.394 –2.251 –3.754 Mean Square 0.70 0.04 0.07 95% Confidence Interval 1.17 2.07 –0.25 –0.06 –0.22 –0.01 –9.59 –2.91 P>|t| 0.000 0.001 0.029 0.000 Number of observations = 56 F statistic (3, 52) = 18.87 Probability > F = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.52 Adjusted R-squared = 0.49 RMSE = 0.1929 ______________ 4The Cook-Weisberg test for heteroscedasticity using fitted values of lnnewTOA is: Ho: Constant variance chi2(1) = 1.66 Prob > chi2 = 0.1980 5There was not a significant difference for the coefficients of the other term for derivative engines and first-in-series engines.

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