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the real discount rate ir is 8 %. The market feasibility or competitiveness of the CDU plant is analysed through the sensitivity analyses of selected costs and prices, with the aim of determining the variables with the most influence and the conditions under which the NPV of each CDU plant becomes positive. First, univariate sensitivity analyses and second, bivariate sensitivity analyses are performed using a routine developed in the software Matlab. 2.4 Market perspective This analysis aims at evaluating: the future demand of the product synthesised by CO2, considering current and possible new uses; the captured CO2 required as raw material by the CDU process to supply the assumed demand; and the overall CO2 not-emitted because the product demand is supplied by the CDU process instead of the conventional one. The vision of the market is simplified for its evaluation in this report. Different penetration pathways are defined up to the year 2030. These are assumed for the European market and take into account current tendencies and regulatory framework. The defined pathways stem from different contexts and points of view (i.e. motivating fuel cell penetration, conservative and optimistic points of view, respectively). They take into account the: provision of product demand increase by 2018, based on the market growth of current applications; replacement of product imports in Europe by 2018; and provision of product demand due to emerging uses, in 2030, in the transport and stationary (residential and commercial) sectors. Note that the provision of product-demand increase and the replacement of product-imports in Europe are based on current market predictions. These predictions, based on bibliographic data, do not provide estimates beyond 2018. In the current study we assume that, due to the emerging nature of CDU processes, it is not realistic to assume that the yearly increase, up to 2030, of the product demand or of the product imports will be completely provided by CO2 utilisation processes. Therefore, we have considered a maximum of five years, and a minimum of one year, of product demand increase provided by CO2 utilisation processes. The competition with other new, efficient and renewable synthesis processes for MeOH and FA (as for example, biomass routes) or for the products they are replacing (for instance, biofuels), market saturation risk and the analysis of the evolution of prices, are outside the scope of this work. Therefore, we assume the simplest market case: the CDU process replaces conventional MeOH and FA synthesis, at current price, even in the newest penetration pathways. See Appendix 3 for further detail about the penetration pathways. 28PDF Image | evaluation of CO2 utilisation for fuel production
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