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Roadmap 2050 [115]. Penetration in the shipping sector (P3) takes into account Eurostat data [116]. In order to evaluate the potential of MeOH as transport fuel (P4-P11), the in-house Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM) [117], [118] is used to depict the 2030 panorama. This is a comprehensive system dynamics model of the EU-28 light duty vehicle sector which accounts for interactions and feedback between manufacturers, infrastructure providers, authorities and users. The model includes a realistic share of fuels (i.e. gasoline, diesel, electricity, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), compressed natural gas (CNG), hydrogen, biodiesel and bioethanol) for passenger and light commercial fleet and different powertrains according to the Council Regulation (EU) number 630/2012 amending Regulation (EC) No 692/2008, Directive 2009/30/EC and Directive 2014/94/EU and takes into account the EC Clean Power for Transport package from the EC Roadmap 2050 [115]. Input data are obtained from numerous sources and expert judgements, mainly Eurostat, EU Reference Scenario 2013 and TRACCS. Taking into account representative current policies and techno-economic trends, the BASE scenario is obtained, as depicted in Figure 10, left column. However, this scenario for passenger and light commercial vehicles by 2030 highlights a dominance of gasoline and diesel vehicles. This is not unexpected, as turnover of stock is limited by the reactively long lifespan of vehicles, and the alternative powertrain market is still in its infancy. In order to have a contribution from fuel cell vehicles (FCV) for formic acid penetration in the next chapters, an ad hoc scenario has been performed. The scenario FCV+ (Figure 10, right column) motivates FCV deriving from the BASE scenario premises. In order to achieve this, the scenario is highly optimistic, including early introduction of FCV models, high infrastructure and FCV purchase subsidies with no electric vehicles (EV) subsidies, and the removal of alternative fuel options for conventional powertrains to prevent competition. Moreover, two points of view are represented as for the share of MeOH: conservative and optimistic. 100 80 60 40 20 0 Electricity LPG Hydrogen Biodiesel Bioethanol CNG Diesel Gasoline BASE FCV+ Figure 10: Fuel’s share for private and light commercial vehicles by 2030 for the two considered scenarios, BASE and FCV+. Hybrid vehicles are also taken into account. Figure 11 and Figure 12 represent the CO2 demand for each penetration pathway for MeOH, under the two points of view. Table 5 summarises the total amount of MeOH needed, the corresponding tonnes of CO2 required as inlet raw material and the amount of CO2 not-emitted. In order to satisfy the demand of MeOH, between 28 and 52 Mt/yr (embracing both scenarios and points of view), CO2 feedstock ranges between 41 and 76 Mt/yr. The amount of CO2 not-emitted is between 16 and 31 Mt/yr. Note that the obtained demand of MeOH, in Europe, would approximately equal the current production of MeOH, under the optimistic point of view. These results underline the potential of the market of MeOH synthesised from CO2 to the CO2 emissions reduction and to the fossil fuel not used: natural gas savings would be between 17 and 31 Mt/yr. 42 Fuel demand in terms of energy share (%)PDF Image | evaluation of CO2 utilisation for fuel production
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