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6.2 Financial analysis The NPV for the FA plant is evaluated in - EUR 91 million, under the hypotheses outlined in Section 2.3. In order to know the situations under which the project could become profitable (NPV above zero), different sensitivity analyses have been performed for the FA process. 6.2.1 Formic acid CDU plant univariate sensitivity analyses results The selected variables: prices of FA, O2 and CO2, are varied widely in order to obtain a NPV equal to zero. Electricity price, HP steam price, ISBL and consumables contribution have upper bounds (current values or plus 10 % in the case of consumables) and lower bounds (zero for electricity and steam prices, down to 12 % and 45 % of current values for consumables and ISBL) and are depicted in orange in Figure 17. It can be seen that the most important influence on NPV comes from consumables contribution and the FA price. These are followed by the price of electricity and ISBL. Contributions from O2, steam and CO2 prices seem to have less impact on the NPV. Table 9 summarises the values that make NPV equal to zero; electricity price, HP steam price, ISBL and consumables cannot reach a NPV equal to zero. Table 8: Main metrics comparison between the FA CDU plant and the conventional methyl formate hydrolysis process. The conventional pathway includes CO synthesis and FA production. Data are from [114], [146]. The conventional production costs have been estimated assuming a 27 % benefit, based on the FA market price. Gate-to-gate boundaries. Electricity needs (MWh/tFA) Steam needs (MJ/kg FA) Cooling water needs (tH2O/tFA) Process water needs (tH2O/tFA) Production costs (€/tFA) Total CO2 emissions (tCO2/tFA) Inlet CO2 (tCO2/tFA) Heavy fuel oil savings (tHFO/yr) (0.4 tHFO/tFA) CDU plant 4.07 10.03 251.53 0.59 1 524 0.166 0.834 4 863 Conventional plant 1.55 19.25 375.50 0.60 475 2.18 Based on these results, different circumstances may result in the FA plant becoming profitable. A decrease in consumable prices, a lower price for electricity, a higher price for the FA, and/or a reward for using captured would make the FA plant economically feasible. An increase of 2.5 times in the current price of FA would allow a positive NPV for the CDU plant. However, the numbers in Table 9 depict unrealistic prices for the tonne of O2 and CO2. 56PDF Image | evaluation of CO2 utilisation for fuel production
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