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6.3 Market perspective The following market penetration possibilities assume that the FA CDU plant is fully commercial and available for implementation (in year 2015). The depicted penetration pathways of FA (PF) are inspired by current legislation and state-of-the-art research. These are defined to complement each other. As a hydrogen carrier, once FA is converted back to H2, the CO2 spent to synthesise the molecule of FA is released. This CO2 can be used again to synthesise FA with new inlet H2, in the so- called circular approach. The current approach does not consider this circular approach. As a result, when calculating the PFs as hydrogen carrier, a "net" CO2 demand is assumed. Therefore, the following results remain optimistic in the side of CO2 demand. Seven PFs have been identified: yearly increase of FA demand (PF1); use as a hydrogen carrier, in gas and FCV (PF2-3); use as a hydrogen carrier, to supply part of an assumed growing demand of MeOH (PF4); use as a hydrogen carrier, to cover the increase of merchant H2 demand (PF5); stationary applications, in fuel cells (PF6-7). The assumptions taken in each PF are described in Appendix 3, Table 15 and Table 16, according to a conservative and an optimistic point of view. In order to estimate PF1, the predictions of Section 5.1 for the FA market are used. For the stationary sectors (PF6-7), the information is from the EC Roadmap 2050 [115]. In order to evaluate the potential of H2 as transport fuel, the PTTMAM is used to depict the 2030 panorama (BASE and FCV+ scenarios; see Section 4.3 for further descriptions). Figure 22 and Figure 23 summarise the CO2 demand for each penetration pathway for FA, seen from the two points of view. Table 10 summarises the corresponding tonnes of CO2 required as inlet raw material, the total amount of FA needed and the amount of CO2 not-emitted. To satisfy the overall demand for FA, which stands between 5 and 24 Mt/yr (embracing both scenarios and points of view), CO2 provision may be in the range of 4-21 Mt/yr. The amount of CO2 not-emitted is in the range of 10-47 Mt/yr. The results of this section highlight that the proposed penetration pathways are overall optimistic, if compared with the current demand of FA worldwide (0.62 Mt/yr). These results would depend on the explicit stimulation of the hydrogen economy. The overall amount of heavy fuel oil savings corresponds to 2-10 Mt/yr. 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 PF1 PF2 PF3 PF4 PF5 PF6 PF7 Base case FCV+ Figure 22: Demand for CO2 for the FA penetration pathways, and conservative point of view. 59 Demand for CO2 (Mt/yr)PDF Image | evaluation of CO2 utilisation for fuel production
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