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APPENDIX 3: MARKET ANALYSIS AND PENETRATION PATHWAYS Table 13: Description of each penetration pathway for MeOH synthesis from CO2. Conservative and optimistic points of view differ in the percentages of energy demand replaced by the product synthesised by CO2. Penetration pathways for MeOH for year 2030, except for P1 and P2 P1. Current demand (2013); the yearly increase of demand in Europe is provided by CDU plants. P2. Current demand (2013); the yearly imported MeOH in Europe is provided by CDU plants. P3. Shipping sector, as heavy fuel oil (HFO) replacement in the fleet of the European International Marine Bunkers (EU-28 + Norway), due to more restrictive legislation regarding sulphur emissions. P4. Passenger and light commercial vehicles; MeOH is blended with gasoline in an ICE. According to the gasoline mono-fuel legislation (Directive 2009/30/EC), up to 3 % in volume may be replaced by MeOH. The percentages in the different points of view refer to the replacement by MeOH of the energy needs of the gasoline fleet predicted by PTTMAM. P5. Passenger and light commercial vehicles; MeOH is further converted into MTBE and it is blended as a gasoline component in an ICE. According to the gasoline mono-fuel legislation (Directive 2009/30/EC), a maximum of 22 % in volume may be replaced by MTBE (as oxygenate of 5 carbon atoms). The percentages refer to the replacement by MTBE of the energy needs of the gasoline fleet. P6. Passenger and light commercial vehicles; MeOH is further converted into ethanol and it is blended as a gasoline component in an ICE. According to the gasoline mono-fuel legislation (Directive 2009/30/EC), a maximum of 5 % in volume can be replaced by ethanol. The percentages refer to the replacement by ethanol of the energy needs of the gasoline fleet. P7. Passenger and light commercial vehicles; flex-fuel M85 (85 vol. % MeOH, 15 vol. % gasoline) vehicles. This category is not considered in market predictions, thus the percentages in the different points of view refer to the replacement of gasoline by the M85 mixture in the gasoline fleet. P8. Passenger and light commercial vehicles; flex-fuel E85 (85 vol. % ethanol, 15 vol. % gasoline) vehicles. The percentages correspond to the replacement of the energy needs from the bioethanol fleet, predicted by PTTMAM, by ethanol from captured CO2. P9. Passenger and light commercial vehicles; MeOH is further converted into DME and it is blended with diesel in an ICE. The diesel mono-fuel legislation does not specify any mixture percentage. It is assumed that a maximum replacement of 30 % in mass basis does not modify the efficiency of the engine [171], [172]. The percentages in the different points of view refer to the replacement by DME of the energy needs of the diesel fleet predicted by PTTMAM. P10. Passenger and light commercial vehicles; MeOH is further converted into biodiesel (through the transesterification of MeOH and fatty acids derived from renewable sources) and it is blended with diesel in an ICE. As a diesel mono-fuel vehicle, a maximum of 7 % in volume is currently replaced by biodiesel [173]. The diesel mono-fuel legislation does not specify any mixture percentage. The percentages in the different points of view refer to the replacement by biodiesel of the energy needs of the diesel fleet. P11. Passenger and light commercial vehicles; flex-fuel B30 (30 vol. % biodiesel, 70 vol. % gasoline) vehicles; MeOH is further converted into biodiesel. The percentages correspond to the replacement of the energy needs of the biodiesel fleet, predicted by PTTMAM. P12. Fuel cells for electricity supply in the residential sector; MeOH is used in RMFC. The percentages in the different points of view correspond to the contribution of RMFC to the total share of fuel cells. P13. Cooking needs in the residential sector; MeOH is further converted into DME and it is blended with LPG. It is assumed that a maximum replacement of 20 % in volume of LPG can be replaced by DME without further modifications of the system [174]. The percentages in the different points of view refer to the penetration of DME to replace LPG. P14. Fuel cells for electricity supply in the industrial sector; MeOH is used in RMFC. The percentages correspond to the contribution of RMFC to the total share that belongs to fuel cells. P15. Micro fuel cells for portable devices; MeOH is used as a H2 carrier. Optimistic point of view 5 years 1 year 40% 40% 20% 10% 10% 30% 10% 50% 30% 15% 2% Conservative point of view 1 year 1 year 20% 30% 10% 5% 5% 10% 5% 25% 10% 10% 1% 10% Not realistic for 2030 15% 83PDF Image | evaluation of CO2 utilisation for fuel production
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