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Putting CO2 to Use: Creating Value from Emissions Technical analysis The modelling results show that CO2-derived fuels and chemicals play a very modest role in both the RTS and CTS, mainly due to their high CO2 abatement costs relative to other low-emission technologies, such as energy efficiency, fuel switching and CCS. Of the 241 MtCO2 used in 2060 in the CTS, an amount of 195 Mt is generated and used internally in urea manufacturing and 46 MtCO2 is captured from external sources (power plants and industrial facilities) and used for the production of methanol, methane and liquid fuels. In the LCS, CO2 use starts to expand after 2045 and reaches nearly 900 Mt (0.9 Gt) in 2060. This is relatively small in comparison to the CO2 stored in the CTS in 2060 (5.5 Gt). Other low-emissions technologies and measures – such as energy efficiency measures, innovative industrial manufacturing processes and behavioural changes in transport (for example, higher shares of carpooling) – are deployed to compensate for the emissions reductions otherwise provided by geological CO2 storage in the CTS. This results in considerably higher costs than the CTS (IEA, 2019b). Captured CO2 for geological storage and use by scenario Geological storage Use 6 RTS 6 CTS 6 555 444 333 222 111 000 2030 2040 2050 2060 2030 2040 2050 2060 2030 2040 2050 2060 Source: IEA (2019b), Exploring Clean Energy Pathways: The Role of CO2 Storage. CO2 use for methanol and fuel production only plays a role if geological storage is not widely available, but even then its role is limited to the long term. Limited CO2 storage availability results in nearly six-fold increases in electrolysis-based methanol production by 2060, relative to the CTS, using 61 MtCO2 to produce 44 billion tonnes (240 TWh) of methanol. CO2-derived fuels account for the bulk of the CO2 used, with an amount of around 620 MtCO2 in 2060 to produce 2 010 TWh (7.2 EJ) of liquid fuels and 430 TWh (1.5 EJ) of methane. Compared to the CTS, this reduces global primary oil demand by 8% and gas demand by 2%. To achieve these levels of CO2-derived products, significant efforts are needed in the power sector. To produce the required hydrogen, 5 630 TWh of electricity will be needed in 2060, which represents 10% of global electricity generation in the limited CO2 storage variant. With tightening fossil CO2 emissions constraints over time, only a limited amount of fossil CO2 can be used in products; instead, the bulk of the CO2 used in 2060 will need to come from biogenic or atmospheric sources. LCS PAGE | 38 IEA. All rights reserved. GtCO2 per yearPDF Image | Putting CO2 to Use Creating value from emissions
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