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10.3 Future research needs Based on the definitions provided at the outset of this Section and on the assessment of the state of the art and scientific challenges above, we propose the following five key challenges and corre- sponding strategic goals for scientific research and technical development. It is worth underlining that improved versions of established technologies and systems need to be demonstrated at scale within the next 5-10 years in order to be applied at the gigaton scale by 2050, whereas brand new technologies require possibly 15 years or more to be introduced. Disrupting technologies that lead to major structural changes of the sustainable fuels and chemicals system (e.g. the emergence of DAC in the last few years or the introduction of CO2 geological storage in the 1990s) may emerge, but with a timeline that is unpredictable. 10.3.1 Providing a system perspective to assess sustainability Figure 10.3 shows in detail the block elements that constitute each of the four technology chains in Figure 10.1. The complexity of the actual chains is reflected by the complexity of the figure. It is worth emphasizing that sustainability implies that all CO2 emissions to the atmosphere must be counteracted by equivalent amounts of extracted CO2 from the atmosphere (green arrows) and that all fossil carbon extracted from the subsurface (as fossil fuel or limestone) must be reinjected into the geosphere after capture (red arrows). A life cycle analysis (LCA) around the system boundaries in Figure 10.3 is needed, quantifying carbon balances (to assess net-CO2-emissions), energy balances (to quantify the overall energy chain efficiency in the use of renewable electricity), material flows (related to the development of the needed infrastructure), and possibly costs. LCA may provide a fair assessment of the performance of any value chain proposed in this framework, as well as a thorough accounting of the carbon credits and carbon debits to be assigned to each stakeholder in the chain (see Sections 9, 11, and 12 that also advocate the need for LCA). Figure 10.3: Technology blocks and material fluxes associated to all possible schemes of Figure 10.1. 105PDF Image | sustainable production of fuels and chemicals
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