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Working Paper ID-065 Fuels and chemicals each account for a relatively large share of the global carbontech market, with the total available market for fuels estimated at about $3.8 trillion and that for chemicals (including plastics) about $440 billion.30 Although data are not available for the share of carbontech accounted for by waste carbon from industrial emissions, it is estimated that such projects could grow to about 25–30 percent of the total carbontech market as more processes are commercialized.31 As shown in table 1, many of the projects underway to date are in China and the EU.32 Industry sources cite several reasons for this geographical concentration, including the magnitude of waste emissions available, industrial efforts to reduce emissions to meet national targets, funding, government policies, and, especially in China, reported national concern about reliance on imported fossil fuels.33 According to one industry representative, the EU and China are more open to investment in carbon capture to produce renewable fuels and chemicals; in comparison, the United States has reportedly little investment in this area.34 Reasons vary, including emissions targets, carbon pricing programs, and government policies. For example, sources note that CCS technologies are more prevalent in the United States. They attribute this, in part, to the use of EOR to produce more crude petroleum and to U.S. policies that support CCS, including the U.S. 45Q Carbon Capture and Storage tax credit and the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard.35 Another reason mentioned is that the type and cost of fossil fuel used as a feedstock by the chemical industry varies by region; in the United States, natural gas and other fossil fuel costs are substantially lower than such costs in the EU.36 These factors are discussed in more detail below. 30 Lucas and Jacobson, “A Review of Global and U.S. Total Available Markets for Carbontech,” Executive Summary, 2017. In this document, the totals presented for plastics and chemicals were combined in this USITC working paper to form the total estimate for chemicals. Although plastics account for a large share of the estimate for chemicals (about $412 billion of the $440 billion), the authors’ methodology in the Executive Summary indicates that they looked at the value potential for a few specific chemicals that can be made from waste carbon. It is likely that the estimate for chemicals alone will increase as higher-value downstream chemicals become more prevalent, both as building block chemicals are increasingly used as inputs into the downstream products and as CCU technologies evolve. Industry representative, telephone interview with USITC staff, October 11, 2019. 31 Lucas, “Carbontech and the New Carbon Economy,” June 20, 2018; Reuters, “Thyssenkrupp to Cut CO2 Emissions by 30% over Next Decade,” July 2, 2019. 32 Industry representative, telephone interview with USITC staff, September 13, 2019. 33 Industry representatives, telephone and in-person interviews, July 10, 2019; Economist, “From Smog to Slog,” September 21-27, 2019, 47-48. 34 Industry representative, telephone interview with USITC staff, October 16, 2019. 35 Page, “US Leads New Wave of Carbon Capture and Storage Deployment,” The Hill, January 5, 2020; Roberts, “Could Squeezing More Oil Out of the Ground Help Fight Climate Change?” Vox, December 6, 2019. 36 Cefic, “Molecule Managers,” October 2017, 5. 12 | www.usitc.govPDF Image | Using Waste Carbon Feedstocks to Produce Chemicals
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