Using Waste Carbon Feedstocks to Produce Chemicals

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Working Paper ID-065 to discontinue emissions or continue/reduce their emissions, paying for the level they emit.111 The EU and China both have carbon pricing programs.112 China, for example, has had several carbon pricing pilot programs in place and will reportedly roll out a national plan with monetary trading in 2020.113 Carbon prices in the EU reportedly tripled since 2018.114 As such, many companies worldwide are reportedly already considering a carbon price in their business plans.115 Cefic, the European chemical industry trade association, says in its “mid-century vision”— presenting a strategy for the European chemical industry through 2050—that a world carbon price would make waste carbon “a valuable commodity” and that the circular economy will play an important role in the European chemical industry’s future.”116 Cefic’s vision is based on numerous assumptions, including that the European CO2 price will grow to $111.47 per metric ton by 2050, incentivizing chemical producers to focus on CCU projects.117 As mentioned earlier, government policies play an important role in the evolving expansion of CCU projects. Although the rate at which government policies promoting CCU are being developed and implemented varies by country and region, these incentives and mandates are likely to increase the relative attractiveness of CCU investments for industrial emitters, as well as the rate of substitution of waste feedstocks for fossil-based feedstocks for consuming chemical companies. Case Study: What Is the Potential Impact on the Steel Industry? Steel manufacturers around the world are facing numerous factors affecting their bottom line, including growth projections, emissions targets, and carbon prices. This section addresses in more detail how CCU and chemical manufacturing can help mitigate costs and revenue loss. Production Trends The global steel industry is a significant source of industrial emissions, reportedly accounting for about 25 percent of the global manufacturing sector’s industrial emissions of CO2.118 The World Steel Association states that production of crude steel in 2019 amounted to 1.81 million metric tons in 2018, 111 World Bank, “Carbon Pricing Dashboard” (accessed February 8, 2020); Plumer and Popovich, “These Countries Have Prices on Carbon,” April 2, 2019. 112 BloombergNEF database, 1H 2019 LCOE; Ahmad, “Strengthening International Collaboration on Carbon Capture Use and Storage,” March 2019. 113 Economist, “From Smog to Slog,” September 21-27, 2019, 47-48; Timperley, “Q&A: How Will China’s New Carbon Trading Scheme Work?” CarbonBrief, January 29, 2018. 114 Newburger, “Steel Industry to Suffer Major Losses from Rising Carbon Prices and Climate Regulations, Report Says,” CNBC, July 30, 2019. 115 We Mean Business Coalition. “LanzaTech on Turning Pollution into Fuels and Products,” August 29, 2018. 116 Cefic, “Molecule Managers,” October 2017, 27 and 45; Buxton, “Circular Economy Key to Future of European Chemical Industry,” Chemical Watch, June 27, 2019. 117 Cefic, “Molecule Managers,” October 2017, 57. Converting 100 € using an exchange rate of 1 Euro = US $1.115 on December 16, 2019 (https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=100&From=EUR&To=USD). 118 Global Efficiency Intelligence, “How Clean is the U.S. Steel Industry? An International Benchmarking of Energy and CO2 Intensities,” November 2019. 24 | www.usitc.gov

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