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Working Paper ID-065 Production Versus Emissions Goals There are few long-range projections for world steel production and demand. Whereas IEA suggests that economic and population growth may result in growth in steel demand in emerging countries, both IEA and Accenture Strategy suggest that Chinese demand will slow; Accenture Strategy also states that global demand growth may slow if emerging countries face slower industrialization rates; as new materials emerge that could replace steel; and as more scrap steel is used as the circular economy grows.128 Slowing demand scenarios may be exacerbated by production cuts to meet emissions targets and carbon pricing programs. In 2019, the European steel industry was already said to be facing cost pressures because of increased imports of low-cost Chinese steel imports and, prospectively, from carbon pricing.129 About 85 percent of the global steel industry is potentially expected to face an average reduction in net present value of about 14 percent if carbon prices reach about $100 per metric ton by 2040; the source also mentions that many steel companies are not likely to reach the necessary emissions reductions by 2050 to meet world CO2 reduction goals.130 Moreover, an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report says that OECD steel producers, particularly those using the BF/BOF process, are expected to reduce production by as much as 12 percent if an OECD-wide carbon tax of about $25 per metric ton of CO2 is implemented.131 ArcelorMittal, for example, reported that a production cut in May 2019 was, in part, due to rising carbon prices.132 As such, the steel industry is reportedly continuing to research and implement ways to reduce emissions, including abatement efforts; process enhancements; and using the emitted waste carbon to produce other value-added products, such as chemicals and textiles.133 Innovation and partnerships are considered critical.134 Eric de Coninck, Chief Technology Officer for Technology Development at ArcelorMittal, is cited by one source as saying: “We must search for innovative solutions to further reduce the emission of greenhouse gasses.”135 The use of waste emissions to make chemicals will let steel companies reduce their carbon footprint and associated carbon tax burden while also producing value-added products. LanzaTech says that they 128 Lichtenstein, “Steeling for Disruption,” Accenture Strategy, 2017; Pales, Levi, and Vass, “Tracking Industry,” IEA, May 2019. 129 Industry representative, telephone interview with USITC staff, August 30, 2019; Crocker et al., “Melting Point,” Executive Summary, CDP, July 2019; CDP, “Steel Sector Faces Significant Losses from Future Climate Regulation,” press release, July 31, 2019. 130 Crocker et al., “Melting Point,” Executive Summary, CDP, July 2019; CDP, “Steel Sector Faces Significant Losses from Future Climate Regulation,” press release, July 31, 2019. The report says that the individual impact on companies would range from about 2.5 percent to 30 percent. 131 OECD, “Environmental Policy in the Steel Industry: Using Economic Instruments,” Executive Summary, January 2003. 132 ArcelorMittal, “ArcelorMittal to Temporarily Reduce Annualised European Primary Steelmaking Production by Three Million Tonnes,” May 6, 2019. 133 We Mean Business Coalition, “LanzaTech on Turning Pollution into Fuels and Products,” August 29, 2018; ArcelorMittal, “Climate Action Report 1,” May 2019, 4; Vass, Fernandez-Pales, and Levi, “Tracking Clean Energy Progress: Iron and Steel,” IEA, May 29, 2019. 134 Lichtenstein, “Steeling for Disruption,” Accenture Strategy, 2017. 135 Smart Delta Resources, “FD: Arcelor and Dow Solve Each Others Problems,” February 9, 2017. 26 | www.usitc.govPDF Image | Using Waste Carbon Feedstocks to Produce Chemicals
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