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United States cold/very cold mixed-humid hot-humid mixed-dry/hot-dry marine per region (millions) 118 42 34 23 13 7 80% 100% other fuel/ none central furnace central furnace other heat pump 20% other Source: US Energy Information Administration, 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey Note: In the United States, heating equipment still varies significantly along climate lines. Colder and dryer regions tend to use natural gas, while warmer and wetter regions use electricity. Barriers to ASHP adoption include the following: ● Costs. In many climates, ASHPs are more expensive than natural gas furnaces (both in terms of up-front and lifetime costs). ● Performance. The COP advantage of ASHPs is reduced in colder climates. ● Infrastructure. Many existing buildings were not designed for ASHPs. Installing an ASHP may require costly ductwork or other retrofits. ● Stock turnover. Furnaces and boilers can last for decades. Unless furnaces are retired before the end of their useful lives, demand for ASHPs in many existing buildings will be low. ● Status quo bias. Consumers are more likely to stick with the equipment they have, and the space heating market is dominated by furnaces. Moreover, most heating systems are replaced only after they have failed, leaving homeowners very little time to shop for a new technology. ● Short termism. Consumers place considerable weight on up-front costs, whereas a key advantage of ASHPs is their efficiency, which can reduce long-term costs. ● Principal-agent problems. Builders are rarely incentivized to pay higher up-front costs ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDU | DECEMBER 2019 | 15 DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS Figure 5: Main heating equipment choice by climate region, 2015 number of households 0% natural gas 40% electric 60%PDF Image | DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH HEAT PUMPS
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