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4. US DEEP DECARBONIZATION LITERATURE 4.1. Prominent Studies In recent years, several detailed and comprehensive studies have outlined pathways to deep decarbonization or high levels of electrification of the US energy system. Table 1 provides a summary of prominent national-level studies. In each study, the deployment of ASHPs is a primary strategy used to achieve the electrification and decarbonization of space heating. Electric Power 32 Research Institute Jacobsen et al.34 2018 “Transformation” electrification scenario 100 percent energy 2018 from wind, water, and solar (“Case C”) DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS Table 1: Studies of the electrification of the US space heating needs Authors Year Study objective or scenario Electrification of residential space heating demand by 2050 Technology deployment determined by Williams et al.30 2015 80 percent emissions reductions by 2050 About 100 percent About 40 percent About 100 percent Expert assumption Cost minimization Expert assumption White House31 2016 80 percent emissions reductions by 2050 (“benchmark” scenario) About 50 percent Cost minimization US National Renewable Energy Laboratory33 2018 “High” electrification scenario About 60 percent Expert assumption With respect to determining future deployments of ASHPs and other space heating technologies, the studies can be divided into two categories, which we label “expert assumption” and “cost minimization.” In the studies that use expert assumptions to determine the deployment of technologies, the models are used largely as accounting tools, ensuring pathways are technically feasible and that sufficient energy services are available to meet consumer demands under constraints imposed to reflect realistic consumer behavior and stock turnover rates. For example, Jacobsen et al. (2018) shows that the global energy system can be powered by existing wind, water, and solar energy technologies by 2050, including the United States. To accomplish this goal, the study assumes that nearly all energy uses are electrified by 2050. In one scenario (Case C), all air heating and cooling needs are satisfied by electric heat pumps ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDU | DECEMBER 2019 | 19PDF Image | DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH HEAT PUMPS
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